Both of these games pair a team's main weapon against the exact thing the opponent has lost. Cleveland's three-point volume and two bigs meet an Oklahoma City side missing Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Wallace and Caruso, the players who made its defence elite. Toronto's turnover pressure and offensive rebounding meet a Clippers team that has been giving the ball away and losing the boards for weeks. In each case the counter is real, but it needs a shooting night.
Cleveland vs Oklahoma City. Cleveland lives on volume: Harden and Donovan Mitchell create, the team takes around forty threes a game, and Mobley and Allen give it a real two-big inside game. Oklahoma City's old identity was a forcing defence, and that is gone. In the three games without Holmgren and Jalen Williams, its steals dropped to three to eight a night, opponents took forty-one to fifty threes against it, and it lost by more than twenty at Dallas and Houston. Caruso is out again for this match.
The matchup that builds the margin is Cleveland's shooters against that thin perimeter, with Hartenstein left alone to protect the rim. The bench minutes should favour Cleveland too, with Thomas, Proctor and Merrill against a young second unit that produced very little in Houston. Oklahoma City's path is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell carrying the half court against a Cleveland defence that leaks, especially in third quarters. I expect Cleveland to build the lead early from the perimeter and to have enough depth to hold it, which is why I'm with Cleveland to win at home.
Clippers vs Toronto. Toronto forces turnovers almost every night, with opponents committing twenty or more in five of its six games, and it attacks the offensive glass, taking twenty-two offensive rebounds against the Lakers even without Jakob Poeltl. The Clippers turned it over twenty-four to twenty-six times in three of their last five, lost the rebounding battle in all five losses of their slide, and are still missing Beal, Ingram, Strus and Miller.
The key matchup is Toronto's pressure, led by Barnes, Shead and Quickley, against a Clippers backcourt of Garland, who is playing through back tightness, and the rookie Wagler. Their cleaner game at Golden State came against a weaker forcing team. The Clippers' best answer is size at the rim with Lopez and Isaiah Jackson against a Toronto front line without Poeltl. But Toronto's edges were measured without him, so his status changes less than it seems. Both teams are on a back-to-back, and Toronto stayed in Los Angeles. Extra possessions should give Toronto a margin of a few baskets, which is why I'm siding with Toronto on the road.
