[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 17, 14:30 UTC
ADO Den Haag host PSV Eindhoven at the WerkTalent Stadium on October 17 at 23:30 Korea time in the ninth round of the Eredivisie. ADO Den Haag are still waiting for their first win of the season, while PSV Eindhoven are one point behind leaders Feyenoord. The gap in the table is wide, but the match may hinge on how quickly PSV can break down ADO’s defence without a natural centre-forward.
1. Match overview and team form
Eredivisie after 8 matches Position and points: ADO Den Haag 17th, 3 points / PSV Eindhoven 2nd, 19 points Record: ADO Den Haag 0 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses / PSV Eindhoven 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss Goals for and against: ADO Den Haag 9 scored, 19 conceded / PSV Eindhoven 26 scored, 10 conceded
ADO Den Haag have yet to win in 8 matches since promotion and have conceded in every game. They have picked up points with quick attacks when opponents have dominated possession, though. They scored twice early away to Feyenoord, then drew 2-2 away to Telstar despite Milan Hokke being sent off in the 13th minute. The equaliser against Telstar came when Yannik Eduardo ran in behind the defence to meet Evan Rottier’s pass. The pair have led the team’s attack this season, with 2 goals and 3 assists for Rottier and 3 goals and 1 assist for Eduardo.
Their home form needs context. Their 5 wins in the last 8 home matches include games in the second division last season. In 3 Eredivisie home games this season, they have 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Against Fortuna Sittard, they had more of the ball but struggled to break down a compact defence, then conceded after losing possession at the back. Against SC Cambuur, they had 18 shots but scored only once. By contrast, they scored twice away to Feyenoord and Telstar when they had less of the ball. If ADO Den Haag sit back at home, the opposition’s possession may matter more than the venue.
PSV Eindhoven have scored 26 goals in 8 league matches. Their record in the last 5 competitive games is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, though, and they lost 1-0 away to RB Leipzig last time out after missing a penalty. Coach Peter Bosz said his side created few chances relative to their possession and had too few players in the box. Their scoring average for the season includes matches in which Ricardo Pepi played. Since Pepi went off with an early injury against Twente, midfielder Sven Mijnans has led the line, with Guus Til arriving in the box from behind.
The absences are directly linked to that change. Bosz said that centre-forwards Pepi, Sam Lammers and Alassane Pléa are all unavailable against ADO Den Haag. Midfielders Wanner and Jerdy Schouten are also out. For ADO Den Haag, defender Hokke is suspended after his red card against Telstar. Coach Robin Peter said Sekou Sylla will take his place. Nigel Thomas, who was involved in both goals against Feyenoord, missed the Telstar squad after a shoulder injury, and his availability for this match has not been announced. Donát Bárány, who scored the equaliser against SC Cambuur, is also a doubt.
The two coaches have handled the schedule differently. Peter has used a 4-4-2 at home with Eduardo and Rottier up front, while adding defenders or tightening the distances between players away to stronger teams. He has also adjusted the attack with half-time substitutions. Bosz has stuck to a possession-based approach but has rotated his starting line-up in league games around Champions League fixtures. PSV travelled to Leipzig on the 13th, then will fly to Portugal on Monday after the ADO Den Haag match to face FC Porto. Both predicted line-ups name Ryan Flamingo and Yarek Gasiorowski as the centre-back pairing. Gasiorowski has not started a match this season, so the confirmed team sheet will matter for the actual defensive set-up.
PSV Eindhoven lead the head-to-head, with 7 wins and 3 draws in 10 matches since 2017. Their last league meeting was a 2-2 draw in The Hague in 2021. ADO Den Haag then spent 5 years in the second division, and both teams have changed coaches and squads substantially. The roles of the players on the pitch today matter more than past results. ADO Den Haag are chasing their first win in front of a sold-out home crowd, though local sentiment is that even a point against PSV would be a good result. That gives them little reason to force possession early.
2. Match-up analysis
The game is likely to begin with PSV in possession and ADO Den Haag keeping their defensive lines compact. ADO pushed forward quickly after winning the ball against Feyenoord and scored, while against Telstar Eduardo ran in behind to meet Rottier’s pass. PSV have also recently lost the ball at the back or allowed quick attacks before getting their defence organised after attacking. Early against SC Heerenveen, cross-field passes from Sergiño Dest and Mauro Júnior were intercepted, leaving space behind the defence for the opposition to attack.
If PSV’s centre-back pairing changes as predicted, dealing with Eduardo’s runs will become an even bigger factor. If Gasiorowski and Flamingo start together, they will need to coordinate the defensive line and cover as Rottier plays the pass. If Armando Obispo keeps his place, he can carry the ball forward from the back, which could reduce ADO Den Haag’s chances to win it high up the pitch. It also matters whether Mauro Júnior starts as the holding midfielder and cuts out the first pass in transition. Even if Eduardo has space to run into, ADO need to get the ball to him if Rottier’s pass is blocked.
ADO Den Haag cannot expect to score just because they win the ball. According to the club, they have the lowest xG in the league this season. In the Feyenoord match, for which data-centre figures are available, they scored twice from an xG of 0.25. Against Telstar, both of their 2 shots on target went in. Those were matches in which they finished a small number of chances with high accuracy. Nikièma’s 9 saves against Feyenoord also help explain that draw. ADO did not sufficiently limit the opposition’s attack, so even if they score in transition today, they may again have to rely on their defence and goalkeeper for long spells.
For PSV, crosses from wide areas and Til’s runs into the box are the main routes forward. Til scored headers from crosses against Twente and SC Heerenveen. Even without a natural centre-forward, the service from Ivan Perišić and Kostić and Til’s late arrivals into the box remain options. Against Fortuna Sittard, ADO let the opposition move the ball quickly to the right and cross freely, then conceded from a header. If Kilo tracks Til into the box, another ADO player will need to pick up the PSV player near the edge of the area. If Kilo holds his position, a defender will have to deal with Til’s run.
Sylla, who is set to replace Hokke at left-back, faces another tough individual battle. He showed his attacking ability by scoring against Feyenoord, but said that later in the same match he increasingly found himself one-on-one with the opposition winger. Dest and Dennis Man are expected to start on PSV’s right, and Esmir Bajraktarević is another option after beating a defender and crossing for Til’s goal against SC Heerenveen. If Bosz brings on a fresh winger in the second half, Sylla could face a new opponent after a long spell of defending.
The opening goal will also shape the coaches’ next decisions. If PSV take the lead in the first half, ADO Den Haag will find it harder to keep sitting back. If Peter adds attackers, Til and Mijnans will have more chances to run in behind. ADO conceded repeatedly on the counter and from long balls behind the defence after pushing forward against Groningen at home. If the score stays 0-0 for a long time, ADO have little reason to rush forward, while PSV can look to their substitutes for a change in attack later on. Peter also uses early substitutions, so the second half will not be decided by one side’s changes alone.
Even if ADO Den Haag score first, the match will not be over. Away to Feyenoord, they led by 2 goals but were pegged back after the hosts brought on attacking substitutes. Against Telstar, they conceded a long-range shot after taking the lead. PSV have also won 4-1 against Sparta Rotterdam without a centre-forward, with Mijnans scoring a hat-trick. Even if ADO make the most of a transition attack, they will need to withstand the subsequent crosses from wide and pressure from the substitutes to secure a win.
3. Final view and conclusion
Our predicted scores are 1-2 or 0-2. We expect PSV to have most of the ball and take time to score against ADO Den Haag’s two lines of defence in the first half. Their chances of going ahead look better after the break, with fresh wingers and Perišić’s crosses and corners. ADO still have a route to a goal through Eduardo running onto Rottier’s pass in transition. If Obispo starts and Mauro Júnior cuts out that first pass, ADO are more likely to be held scoreless.
Even without their 3 centre-forwards, PSV can recreate the situations in which ADO conceded through Til’s runs into the box and crosses from wide. Bosz has rotated his starters between games in a busy schedule, so the substitutes could also have a major role in the second half. ADO have scored when opponents have had the ball, but they have yet to turn a lead into a win. These factors support our expectation of a PSV victory.
The market expects PSV to win and a high-scoring game, based on the teams’ league positions, their scoring records this season and ADO’s goals conceded. But PSV’s season scoring record includes matches Pepi played, and they will start without a centre-forward today. If their first goal comes in the second half and they slow the game down after taking the lead with the FC Porto trip ahead, we expect the margin to stay close. An early PSV goal would change that outlook. If ADO add attackers after falling behind in the first half, Til and Mijnans could use the space behind their defence to add to the score.
