This looks like a match where the table and the structure point in slightly different directions. Celtic are the better side on paper and strong at home, but their defence is being rebuilt on one flank, while Hearts arrive with the most productive attack in the league. It should be a game of bursts rather than steady pressure, with goals coming from errors, set pieces and transitions.
Celtic sit top with 16 goals for and only 4 against, and they have won six of eight at home. The recent European results tell a different story, though: a 1-4 loss at Benfica, a 1-3 loss to Ferencvaros and a 1-4 loss at LASK. At Benfica the opponent had 26 shots, 21 of them in the box, and across the five Celtic games with shot data they faced roughly 21 or 22 attempts per match.
The absences matter because of where they sit. Celtic are without a right-back and a centre-back, plus a winger, and the news is dated just before the game. Those are exactly the roles that a direct, set-piece-and-transition side like Hearts tests. Hearts have scored 19 league goals, 12 of them from the front four, and all four are expected to start. Their doubtful names are bench or rotation players, so the attack is intact.
Expect Celtic to hold the ball and look for an early goal; they have scored inside the first 15 minutes this season. The restart is the busiest window for both teams: Celtic have scored and conceded around the start of the second half, and Hearts have a habit of reacting quickly there. Late in the game Hearts have scored again and again between the mid-60s and the final minutes, so a single goal from a corner, a penalty or a lost ball is a realistic route for them.
That is why I'm siding with Hearts not losing here. They only need one goal route and a game that stays within a goal, not a victory. Celtic's early-lead path is real, and a first-half goal for them would change the picture, but the rebuilt right side and Hearts' goalscoring record make a draw or an away win a live outcome.
