Palace have conceded in the first ten minutes of their last two games (Forest at 3, Lyon at 8), and they now go to Brighton with a back three that is being rebuilt around them. That is the interlock I'd look at in this derby: Brighton's habit of scoring in bunches against a Palace side that has been starting slowly, balanced against a Brighton attack that is thinner than the 18 goals in six league games suggests. So my question is who has to find their legs first, not who is "in form".
Palace's side of it. Axel Disasi serves the last game of his red-card ban, Chadi Riad is out for the season per Read Crystal Palace, and Tomiyasu (calf) is a doubt. Pierre Sage said of Tomiyasu, Mateta and Chilwell only "Potentially. I said the same thing one or two games ago and it wasn't the case" (South London News), and he did not know whether Dean Henderson would play. After the 3-2 loss at Lyon he called the first half passive. Our match record backs that up: Lyon led 2-0 at the break, then Palace scored twice after it, with xG close to level over the full game (1.71 for Lyon, 1.58 for Palace). The Forest game is the odder one: Palace won 3-1, but Forest scored at 3 minutes and had 24 shots and 2.97 xG to Palace's 13 shots and 2.38. Palace finish well, but they have not been controlling the first phase.
Brighton's side. The club's own preview lists 18 league goals in six games, and our records show the Arsenal win as 3-0 with only 40% of the ball and 17 shots to 11. They are not a team that needs the ball to hurt you. But Mitoma (hamstring), Minteh and Wieffer are out, Ferguson and Yohanna are on the absence list, and Hurzeler has rotated through six fixtures in 17 days, so the Zalgiris 4-0 (35 shots) tells us less about the front line that will start here. RotoWire's predicted XI has Kostoulas alone up front with Gomez and De Cuyper wide, which is a guess until the team sheet. Struijk was waiting on a fitness call.
The history cuts the other way from the form. The Brighton preview notes that Palace have won three of their last four league meetings and that Palace failed to score in four of their last six away league games. So a patched Palace defence faces a Brighton side that has not beaten them recently, and a Palace attack that has been quiet on the road in the league but did score twice at Lyon. If Brighton press the early phase and Palace's rebuilt three hold the first twenty minutes, I'd expect this to turn into a game about the second ball; if not, it could be over quickly. Either way I'd watch the first sequences before trusting any season-long number.
