This match is a straight trade-off between pace and size. Barcelona want to run and draw contact, and Zalgiris want to slow it down and live on the glass through Valanciunas and Tubelis. Both coaches named the same key in their previews: Masiulis wants to stop Barcelona's fast attacks, and Sekulic talked about rebounding against Valanciunas. Whoever wins that trade decides a game that should stay close to the end.
Barcelona under Sekulic have won by getting to the line and taking a lot of threes. They reached 21-22 free-throw attempts in each of their three Euroleague games, but they lost the rebound count in all three, including 29-39 at Besiktas. That win came with a small frontcourt and rested on free throws and steals, not on the boards.
Zalgiris' identity is the opposite. They out-rebounded Zvezda 40-34 and Olympiacos 31-25 and stayed level at Paris. Their weak spot is the point-guard position, but that is not new: the same core without Williams-Goss already lost by only 2 to Olympiacos and by 4 at Paris. The headline absence is already inside those close results.
The lineup news leans Zalgiris' way. Barcelona are still without a true rim-and-glass centre: Nebo is day-to-day, and Makoundou and Evbuomwan were also listed out. Minaya, a starting wing defender, is out too, right where Carsen Edwards does his work. Edwards is with the team and has been Zalgiris' main shot-creator at around 16 points a game.
I expect Zalgiris to slow the early minutes and pile up second chances. Barcelona will push whenever Valanciunas sits. Zalgiris' turnovers are what feed Barcelona's break, but Barcelona haven't been forcing many live-ball steals, and Zalgiris kept it to 9 at Paris.
The glass is the concrete edge here, and it points at Barcelona's thinnest spot. That's why I'm siding with Zalgiris to keep this one level or win it on the road.
