Rosario Central go to Tucumán top of Group B and chasing the annual table, but the piece that makes them Central is the piece that's missing. Franco Ibarra and Federico Navarro, the two players who naturally fill the holding role, are both out, Ibarra with an adductor overload and Navarro with a severe ankle sprain, as Radiofónica reported. That matters more against Atlético Tucumán than it would against most sides, because Falcioni's team are comfortable without the ball and have looked far better on the road than in front of their own crowd.
The home/away split is the strange bit. Atlético have played six at home in the Clausura and won none (three draws, three defeats, four goals scored), while away they've won three of six; La Gaceta puts the home drought at seven months. In the matches we have stats for they average around 41% possession and 0.5 xG, so they aren't a side that builds pressure; they wait. At home, against opponents who were also happy to sit, that has left them with nothing to hit. Central are the opposite kind of opponent: roughly 59% of the ball on average and 14 shots a game.
So the real question is whether a patched-up Central midfield can keep the ball far enough up the pitch to stop the counter. Radiofónica lays out Almirón's options: Vicente Pizarro alongside Alan Rodríguez, who is just back from a muscle injury, or Juan Giménez, a defender who played the role in the youth teams, or a switch to a back three. On the other side, La Gaceta expects Leonel Vega back in Atlético's holding spot after his suspension and Leandro Díaz back up front after a muscle injury, which gives Falcioni a proper target for the longer ball. If Central's possession gets loose in the middle, this starts to look like the games Atlético have been winning away from home.
One thing cuts the other way: Atlético haven't beaten Central in nine meetings over the last five years (five draws, four Central wins) on our head-to-head record. I wouldn't lean on that alone, but it does say the hosts have never found a recipe in this fixture. If the missing midfielders push Almirón towards a back three and less of the ball, does Atlético's away-style game finally travel home?
