These matches turn on how attacks reconnect after the first defensive response. Tokushima and Fukushima have already shown that an early advantage can be overturned through the middle and closing quarters. Melbourne and Illawarra bring a different contest between pressure at the rim, a crowded paint and quick attacks off loose possessions.
Tokushima's inside game has several suppliers. Tsukamoto delivered seven assists in the opening meeting, while Ivanauskas, Butts and Nishida also distributed; Dawson and Shu supplied scoring beyond the centers. Fukushima had its own productive connection through Morita and Gardner, but Tokushima followed an eight-point halftime deficit with a 51–25 second half.
Nunge remains on the injury list and Chambers is expected unavailable, with both absent from the opening meeting. Hurt already participated alongside Gardner, so Fukushima still has usable interior scoring. Nishida also played and contributed both points and assists for Tokushima.
I expect the opening possessions to test Fukushima's pressure on interior entries again, followed by a greater role for Tokushima's additional passers as the game develops. The strongest evidence is that those connections have already produced a scoring recovery against this opponent. That's why I'm siding with Tokushima Gambarous to win.
Melbourne's attack puts Anthony's drives alongside Oduro's rolls and seals, with Travers attacking gaps and Ingles offering another distributor. Illawarra wants to crowd the lane without fouling, while Hickey and Doyle push the ball and Froling and Maker create interior opportunities. The Hawks collected 13 offensive rebounds against Cairns, but Cairns repeatedly answered their rallies.
Goulding's continued absence removes movement shooting from Melbourne, keeping the passing and interior connections central to its attack. Blanchfield and Peatling remain unavailable for Illawarra, while Maker is already contributing in the rotation. Melbourne's recent wins were achieved with Goulding absent.
The early contest should center on Anthony and Oduro testing the Hawks' paint defence, with the bench phase bringing Ingles' passing against Hickey and Maker's contributions. Melbourne has restarted its scoring from different game situations and repeatedly reached the foul line, including 35 attempts against Phoenix. I give that sustained scoring route the greater weight against a defence still conceding the next reply. That's why I'm siding with Melbourne United to win.
