Inter Miami have already clinched their playoff place, while Atlanta United's own club site calls this one of the most important fixtures of their season, and that gap in stakes interests me more than the Messi billing. Miami's coach Kily González has said he will change things after a midweek win over NYCFC, with the front three staying and the back line and midfield open to rotation. So my question is whether Atlanta, who need a result badly, can find the one spot where a re-shuffled Miami is soft, or whether Miami's attackers simply override it.
Atlanta first. Their 3-0 at Montréal in midweek was not a possession win: our match record has them on 48% of the ball with 18 shots and 2.07 xG against 0.40, with the goals coming from Almirón, Galoppo and Embolo (the Embolo goal was the club's 500th in MLS, per El Intransigente). They get Tomás Jacob back from suspension and, per the club's availability report, only Will Reilly is out. That is a more settled XI than Atlanta have been able to field for a while, and it matters because Martino has said he wants the group to gel after a busy summer window.
Miami's side of it is less simple than "Messi plays, Miami win". The 2-0 over NYCFC came with 57% of the ball and 2.29 xG to 1.39, but the one recent league game that went badly, the 1-2 at Columbus, was the opposite shape: 56% of the ball, 5 shots, 0.27 xG, a late red card and a stoppage-time winner for the hosts. When Miami hold the ball without getting service to the front three, they have been exposed on the way back. Kily's own line, as El Intransigente quotes it (my translation: when this much effort goes into breaking a team down, the wear is greater and you need to change), is that problem described from the inside.
So the thing I'd watch is the first half hour: does a rotated Miami midfield keep feeding Messi, Berterame and Suárez, or does Atlanta get Embolo and Almirón running at a back line that has not played much together? Line-ups are not confirmed yet and the Miami options in the press differ, so I'd hold the details loosely.
Sources: MLSsoccer.com preview, Atlanta United availability report, El Intransigente (all 16 Oct), plus our DB match records (some marked provisional).
