[2026-27 Eredivisie] NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: Match Preview Kick-off: October 25, 13:30 UTC
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen meet at the Goffertstadion in Nijmegen on October 25 at 13:30 UTC for Round 10 of the Eredivisie. NEC ended an eight-match winless run in all competitions with a European away win, then returns to action around 69 hours later. Groningen have had seven days to regroup before this away trip after conceding five goals against Ajax. It is a meeting between a side still looking for its first home win and another that needs to tighten up after a heavy defeat.
1. Match overview and team form
As of October 24, NEC Nijmegen sit 13th on 10 points, while Groningen are eighth on 14. NEC have yet to win at home in the league, with three draws and two defeats from five matches, and they have conceded in every one. Groningen have taken two wins, a draw and a defeat from four league away games this season, scoring in all of them but keeping no clean sheets. Neither home advantage nor the gap in the table alone explains this matchup.
League record this season After 9 matches: NEC Nijmegen 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats / Groningen 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats Goals scored and conceded: NEC Nijmegen 15 scored, 16 conceded / Groningen 22 scored, 19 conceded Record at the relevant venue: NEC Nijmegen at home, 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats in 5 matches / Groningen away, 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat in 4 matches
NEC's winless home run has not been down to a lack of attacking chances. Across five home matches in all competitions where the Data Centre recorded expected goals, NEC posted 8.21 xG and 6.84 xGA, yet the actual goal difference was 7-9. They had 24 shots and 2.99 xG against Fortuna Sittard but drew 2-2. At the other end, they have conceded seven goals in their last five matches in all competitions, down from 14 in the previous five. That coincides with defenders Deveron Fonville and Ahmetcan Kaplan returning from injury, though we cannot attribute the drop in goals conceded to their returns alone.
The 4-2 away win over Dinamo Zagreb showed both sides of NEC's game. Tobias Storm and Clement Bischoff delivered balls into the box from wide areas, while Bryan Linssen and Chery were involved in the goals. NEC were outshot on target 10-5, though, and goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz made seven saves. Coach Dick Schreuder also said the team defended poorly in the first half. The win does not guarantee the same performance at home in the league.
Groningen had beaten PEC Zwolle and Excelsior in succession before losing 2-5 to Ajax. Against Excelsior, centre-back Marco Rente pushed forward close to the opposition box, won the ball and scored. On the right, the link-up between Jorg Schreuders and David van der Werff helped launch attacks. Still, two of the five goals in that match came from an own goal and a deflected shot. In Groningen's last five matches in all competitions where the Data Centre recorded expected goals, they scored 13 from 8.31 xG. We should not project that overperformance directly onto this match.
The heavy defeat to Ajax exposed problems Groningen must address at the back. Schreuders lost the ball before Ajax's opener, and Groningen conceded twice from second balls after corners. Coach Dick Lukkien said he changed the marking assignments 10 minutes into the match, but goals followed after that adjustment. Lukkien left the door open to changes in the starting XI after the defeat, while stressing that the existing defenders had put in good performances over several matches. The projected lineup is the same as against Ajax, but any changes remain unconfirmed.
The sides also differ in availability and recovery time. The Data Centre's injury list on October 25 marked Dušan Tadić, Emre Mor, Philippe Sandler and Bram Nuytinck as unavailable for NEC. Some reports gave a different view of Tadić's chances of playing, so the lineup announcement will matter. Bischoff, Linssen and Chery have carried the attack in recent matches without Tadić, but Mor's absence as well would leave fewer attacking options from the bench if NEC fall behind. Groningen have fewer defensive options available because of absences including Elvis Van der Laan and Tyrique Mercera. In particular, it is unclear how long left-back Hans Hateboer, who has had limited match time, can last.
The home side has won each of the last four league meetings. But Kōdai Sano, who scored first in NEC's home win last season, has moved on, while Nuytinck and Sandler, who played in defence that day, are unavailable for this match. In Groningen's home win in May, NEC conceded after losing the ball under pressure. The key reference point today is how NEC handle possession against Groningen's press, rather than the home side's four straight wins. Strong gusts are also forecast around kick-off. They could affect the accuracy of long balls and high crosses, but it is difficult to say which team they would disadvantage more.
2. Matchup analysis
Groningen's attacks down the right will test NEC's man-marking. For the opener against PEC Zwolle, Rente sent a long ball from the back to Schreuders on the right. Schreuders and van der Werff exchanged passes before playing a low ball to Thom van Bergen, who scored. Striker Brynjólfur Willumsson has scored in all four of Groningen's league away games this season. If Groningen combine down the right and Willumsson runs in behind, NEC's defenders will have to track their markers while managing the space.
Lukkien described NEC as using a strict man-to-man system, with no defender left in cover at the back. If that is accurate, a defender who loses a duel or loses his man may have little immediate support. NEC have conceded after aerial duels against Ajax and one-on-one defending against Levski Sofia. On the other hand, if Groningen try to play through pressure with a long ball from Rente but fail to find their target, NEC could attack again from a high position. That is one reason the forecast gusts matter. If long passes become less accurate, Groningen may have to rely more on short combinations down the right or winning the ball in the final third.
NEC will also look to create chances down the same flank. Schreuders is keen to push forward, and against Ajax the move that led to a goal began when he lost possession. On NEC's left, Storm delivered the low ball that set up their opener against Zagreb. If both Schreuders and Storm push on, the team that loses the ball first could leave space behind its defenders for the other to attack. NEC scored four times away to Zagreb despite having less possession, with three goals coming from balls delivered into the box from wide areas. They could look for similar openings at home if Groningen push up to press.
The difference in recovery time is another factor. Ten of NEC's 11 starters played the full 90 minutes against Zagreb. They are all included in the projected lineup for today, though Schreuder has not confirmed whether he will start them all again. If NEC maintain an aggressive man-oriented press, they can disrupt Groningen's build-up. But when the press is bypassed, NEC's players need to track runners back. How well the players who put in a long shift away on Thursday can repeat those runs on Sunday could shape Groningen's chances.
NEC are not the only side facing pressure. They failed to deal with the ball at the back against Go Ahead Eagles and conceded an equaliser, and in May's meeting with Groningen they lost the ball in midfield before conceding. Groningen have shown that Rente can push into the opposition half to win possession. At the other end, Groningen goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen gave the ball away to an opponent during build-up against Twente, leading to a goal. If both teams press high, winning the ball in the opposition half could be the starting point for chances. Past results alone cannot tell us which side will make the first mistake.
NEC also have set pieces to lean on beyond the pressing battle. Chery's corners and a header from Philippe Sandler have produced goals this season, and in Zagreb Bischoff's cross was headed in by Linssen. Groningen conceded after failing to clear the first ball from a corner against Ajax. If NEC win corners, Groningen will need to deal with the first challenge from Sandler and Linssen as well as the loose ball that follows. High balls could be affected by the wind, but NEC also have Storm and Bischoff delivering low balls into the box.
The coaches' decisions after the first goal will matter. In their last 10 matches in all competitions, Groningen won four and drew one of the five in which they led at half-time, and lost all four in which they were behind. They have pressed on and added goals when in front. NEC have scored an equaliser in stoppage time at home this season, but still have no league home wins. If Groningen take the lead, NEC will need to commit more players forward. Schreuder has made substitutions that involved removing a defender when trailing, but attacking options off the bench are limited this time. Groningen also lack defensive depth on the bench, so they will have to keep stopping NEC's second-half set pieces.
If NEC score first, the game could take a different shape. The further Groningen push forward to chase the game, the more chances NEC may have to attack the space behind their defence from wide areas, as they did against Zagreb. But NEC scored first against Go Ahead Eagles and then conceded an equaliser almost immediately after a mistake in their build-up. A goal alone will not end their home winless run if they cannot move the ball safely under Groningen's press.
3. Verdict and prediction
Both teams can target ways their opponents have already conceded. Groningen will test NEC's build-up and man-marking with a high press, right-side combinations and Willumsson's runs in behind. NEC will look to attack Groningen's box with low balls from wide areas and corners. We expect both sides to create chances after the opener rather than either team being kept scoreless.
The market gives NEC a slight edge on the back of home advantage, the win in Zagreb and their record of creating chances at home. NEC's ability to make chances at home also matters to our goal outlook. But we should also weigh the 10 shots on target they allowed in Zagreb, their reliance on the goalkeeper's saves, and the fact that most of their starters return to action around 69 hours after playing 90 minutes. Groningen have had seven days off, and their expected lineup includes players who can press NEC's errors at the back. That recovery gap nudges our pick slightly towards Groningen.
Our predicted scores are NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Groningen or 1-3 Groningen. We expect Groningen to take the lead by winning the ball in NEC's half or combining down the right, with NEC responding through corners and low crosses. If NEC bring off a defender to chase the game, Groningen could find space to score again. Given NEC's late set-piece threat and Groningen's lack of defensive options from the bench, 2-3 looks more likely. If NEC rest some starters and handle the ball at the back reliably from the opening minutes, though, the forecast based on Groningen's pressing advantage becomes less convincing.
