Two matches where the headline numbers say one thing and the like-for-like content says another. In Doha, a Qadsiah side famous for league blowouts has not produced a single two-goal margin in Asia, and the hosts have scored in every continental game. In Barcelos, a home side built on its back line meets a visitor that takes plenty of shots and converts few of them. Both games look tighter than the headlines suggest.
Al-Gharafa v Al Qadsiah. Rodgers' Qadsiah hold the ball and feed Reijnders, Quinones and Retegui, and in the Saudi league that has produced 6-0 and 5-0. In this competition it has produced 2-1, 1-1 and 1-1, and Al-Sadd and Pakhtakor both created more than Qadsiah did. Qadsiah have also conceded in all three continental games, two of them late.
Gharafa are a low-possession counter side, and their carriers are in form: Brahimi scored both goals in the weekend win. At this ground they out-created Esteghlal with 19 shots, and all three of their Asian defeats were by one goal, two of them with ten men. Qadsiah arrive without Nacho, Nandez, Diabate and Asiri, which is exactly the rest defence behind high wing-backs that Gharafa's breaks attack.
The flow I expect is Qadsiah with long spells of the ball in front of a Gharafa block, and Gharafa breaking into the space behind. If Gharafa find one goal, Qadsiah need three to pull clear. That's why I'm with Gharafa to keep this close.
Gil Vicente v Vitoria Guimaraes. Luis Pinto's Gil concede almost nothing at home against sides outside the top three: opponents managed 0.19, 0.76, 0.33 and 0.86 expected goals, and every home league game ended with two goals or fewer. Elimbi and Prioste return, so the settled back four and pivot are back together.
Vitoria take plenty of shots, but outside the five-goal win over Maritimo their finishing has lagged far behind their volume. Gil's own attack is thin too, with 8 goals in 9 games. Expect Vitoria territory against a block that rarely allows clean chances, with Gil threatening on the break or from set pieces. The last two meetings finished 0-0 and 0-1, and I'm siding with a low-scoring game.
