Two matches where both back lines are patched up and both attacks keep creating chances. The tables suggest a gap, but the structure points to goals rather than one side pulling clear.
Celtic v Besiktas: Celtic average around 17 shots a game and plenty of corners, but they concede too, with three defenders out for the last four matches. Besiktas are without a suspended centre-back and are thin in midfield, yet their forwards finish well and they have gone over in most of their recent games. Celtic cannot hold a clean sheet with that back line, and Besiktas can counter into the space. That's why I'm backing goals here.
Midtjylland v Ajax: Midtjylland have been in high-scoring games lately (3-2, 2-1, 3-2) while missing their first keeper and two centre-backs. Ajax score a lot away from home but are without both fullbacks and gave up plenty of shots to AZ. Either side can take the lead and open the game up. I'm on the goals side again, with a three-goal total giving a refund.
