Freiburg take plenty of shots away from home, but few of them test the keeper, and Trabzonspor have lost the two finishers who scored their recent goals. In Getafe, Brighton's rotated European side meets a Bordalás block that is built to frustrate possession teams. Both matches look tighter than the teams' reputations suggest.
Trabzonspor v Freiburg. In their last three away games Freiburg managed two, one and two shots on target, against Augsburg, Monaco and Leverkusen, despite having plenty of the ball. Their late goals come off the bench. Trabzon under Reis are happy without the ball at home: they had 38% possession against Besiktas and won 2-0, and their last three home games all ended 2-0. Franculino and Aral, who built their recent goal glut, are both out, and the coach admits he has few attackers left. Cabral is suspended. Osterhage did not travel with Freiburg.
I expect Freiburg to hold the ball against a deep block while Trabzon counter through Muçi and Salah. The game turns on the first goal and on Freiburg's substitutions around the hour. Neither attack, as it stands, looks able to turn this into a shootout. That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring game.
Getafe v Brighton. Brighton played Manchester City twice in four days and have Brentford next, and the expected XI is the European group that drew 0-0 at Jablonec despite 26 shots, only four of them on target, and 0-0 at Tromso. Mitoma, Ferguson, Tzimas and Yohanna are all out. Getafe give up the ball against better sides and stay compact, as against Rayo and Sevilla. They foul to break up rhythm and threaten from set pieces and in the second half.
The base case is Brighton keeping the ball, taking lots of long-range or blocked shots, and a tight scoreline. That's why I'm siding with Getafe to keep this close.
