Crystal Palace's home tag hides weak underlying numbers: they are outshot and they lose the ball under pressure, and Hoffenheim's press attacks exactly that. In Herning, Midtjylland and Ajax both bring patched back lines, and both still have a finisher up front. One match comes down to a press against a shaky build-up, and the other to two leaky defences. Neither looks as one-sided as the names suggest.
Palace v Hoffenheim. Over their last nine matches Palace average around ten shots for and sixteen against. Even at Selhurst they let Forest take 24 shots and needed sharp finishing to win. Their keeper numbers have been running negative. Hoffenheim under Ilzer press high and outshoot opponents: the press beat Leverkusen on shots 20 to 9 and Lyon 21 to 8. My notes show Palace losing the ball in their own half under pressure at Brighton and against Newcastle, and Sage has said the build-up needed work.
Hoffenheim's list of absentees is long. Hlozek is out, Conte is doubtful and the right-back spot is makeshift, so Palace's best route is a direct ball to Mateta or a wing-back cross down that side. Kramaric becomes the hub for Lemperle, Asllani and Daghim. Even after I downgrade Hoffenheim's attack for the missing players, they still create more and Palace still give up volume. Palace have also let a lead slip, as against Besiktas, when they sat back.
Midtjylland v Ajax. Midtjylland are without their first-choice keeper and two first-choice centre-backs. That patched back line has not kept a clean sheet in ten games and gave up 24 shots at Nordsjaelland. Ajax have lost Amrabat in front of the defence and both first-choice full-backs, and they have conceded in all four of their away games. Brandt's absence costs Ajax chances, but Arokodare is still there to finish them. Midtjylland's late runners and wing-back crosses face Ajax's backup full-backs.
So I'm siding with Hoffenheim to avoid defeat in London, and with goals at both ends in Herning.
