The weakest unit in this match is Sparta's own attack. Their creative midfield is missing, their top scorer has sat out the last two games, and their European shots have come mostly from distance. Bournemouth arrive on a run of clean sheets and play a very different game away from home, giving up the ball and breaking. This looks less like an open shootout and more like a test of whether Sparta can get into the box at all.
Sparta want to press and attack through midfield, but Karabec and Rynes are both out with ankle injuries. Mercado, their leading scorer, has a calf problem and missed the last two matches. Sparta scored nothing in either of them: a home cup defeat to Ostrava and a goalless draw at Bohemians. In the Europa League they managed one shot on target at Olympiacos. At home to Lillestrom they got plenty of efforts on goal, but more than half of their shots came from outside the box and the chances added up to very little.
Bournemouth have kept five clean sheets in a row. In a couple of those games opponents did get shots on target, and the keeper dealt with them. In their one Europa League away trip, at Real Sociedad, Petrovic made four saves, three of them from inside the box. Away from home Bournemouth are happy with well under half the ball. They sat deep and broke at Manchester United and in San Sebastian, and they were two up early in Spain.
The midfield absences on Bournemouth's side, Scott and Toth, are not new. Both were already missing during the six straight wins, with Adams and Cook covering. The only fresh absence is right-back Juanlu Sanchez, and Smith has been starting there anyway.
I expect Sparta to push early with home energy and win corners, while Bournemouth sit in a mid-block and wait for turnovers. If Bournemouth score first, Sparta have to chase without their creators, and that suits the counter. If it stays level, Sparta's best hope is a set piece or a long shot. That is a thin route against this defence.
This pick has two ways to land. Sparta's attack stalls against a back line that has stopped conceding, or Bournemouth themselves fail to score. That's why I'm siding with only one of these teams finding the net.
