Celta Vigo's tight defensive numbers depend on their keeper and on blocked shots more than on controlling the game. At home against better sides they are outshot again and again, and their own attack is thin, with no first-choice striker. Royale Union SG come in with a high press and a lot of shots. Those two styles meet right where Celta have struggled most.
Under Giráldez, Celta win through a compact block, a good keeper and taking their few chances. At Balaídos the shot counts tell the story: Juventus outshot them 22 to 9, Alaves 20 to 6 and Betis 15 to 12. Radu made eight saves to beat Alaves, but that is a narrow way to win games.
The key matchup is Union's press against Celta's build-up. Giráldez himself called beating that press the key to the game. When Rayo pressed Celta, Celta did not put a single shot on target and lost 3-0, and they also had none on target at Elche. Hubert's 3-4-3 wins the ball high, piles up shots and wins plenty of corners.
The absences push the same way. Borja Iglesias, Starfelt and Núñez are on Celta's official list of missing players, which leaves Jutglà as the only real number nine. Union miss centre-back Mac Allister and the aerial forward Biondic, but most of their probable XI played together at the weekend.
I expect Union to have the ball and the territory, with Celta looking for set pieces, especially Hugo Álvarez's deliveries to Javi Rodríguez, and for Radu to keep them in it. Union's one game against a LaLiga-level side, Real Sociedad, was dominant on both shots and chance quality. If the game is level into the second half, their volume should start to count.
A draw is a real outcome here, so I want my pick to survive it. That's why I'm siding with Royale Union SG, with the stake protected if it ends level.
