These are two very different European nights. At Celtic Park, a home side that must win but creates little meets an away side that wants the ball and plays a high line. Both defences have been conceding from very few shots. In Leverkusen, a full-strength creative core faces a Marseille side whose coach has again chosen to rotate for the Europa League, and that rotated team has barely threatened in this competition.
Celtic vs Besiktas. Celtic are pointless in the group and have to come out. That pushes their full-backs forward into the areas where Besiktas' wingers and attacking full-backs do their damage. Besiktas are without the suspended Akdag in central defence and without Miretti in midfield, and Kokcu is only fit for the bench. Their high line has already been beaten by direct runners in this competition. Neither keeper has been stopping much: Celtic's has conceded roughly half the shots on target he has faced over recent games, and Nubel saved one of three in each of the last two European games. Celtic have scored in every European game, Besiktas have scored at least twice in every one, and all six games these sides have played in this competition were high-scoring. I'm expecting an open game with goals.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille. Garcia, Maza, Hofmann, Moreira and Schick are all available. Leverkusen's injury list mostly thins the bench, not the starting attack. They have won all three European games by at least two clear goals without conceding, with huge shot volume at OFI. Genesio has announced rotation again, and Harit and Emerson, the two players most involved in Marseille's recent goals, are ruled out. A rotated Marseille managed one shot on target at Sturm and has one goal in three European games. Leverkusen should own the ball, score first and keep pressing for a second. That's why I'm backing Leverkusen to win comfortably.
