Three matches where the shape is set by what one side has lost against what the other still has. Leverkusen meet a Marseille second string that has barely threatened anyone in Europe. Midtjylland and Ajax both come in with fresh holes in the spine of their defence. In Ankara, Ilbank and Nilufer each have a reliable way to win sets and neither has shown a way to close a match out quickly.
Leverkusen v Marseille. Under Martinez, Leverkusen hold the ball and load the box. In this competition that has produced 2.4 to 5.2 xG a game, with under 0.9 conceded every time. Genesio is rotating again with Lens up next. His Europa League side kept 72% of the ball at Sturm and still managed one shot on target, and it has scored once in three games. Harit and Emerson both went off injured against Toulouse and are ruled out, which removes Marseille's main creator and the left-back who supplies their assists. A backup keeper and a young right-back are expected to start.
The one route Marseille have is Leverkusen's known weakness: a press on the first pass and runners in behind, which is how Stuttgart, Hoffenheim and Nurnberg hurt them. Maupay and Paixao can try it, but this rotated side has no recent game where it won like that. Leverkusen also have set pieces as a separate route (12 and 13 corners in their last two home games), and that doesn't depend on the forwards they are missing. Schick is the only true striker left, so I'm not asking for a rout. I'm backing Leverkusen to win with some room to spare.
Midtjylland v Ajax. Both defences have been weakened in ways that hit their main jobs. Midtjylland are missing their first-choice keeper (ill) and two centre-backs, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in nine. That suits Arokodare's aerial and hold-up game, the one Ajax route that survives Brandt's absence. Ajax have lost Amrabat, the screen in front of their back four, and play stand-in full-backs, with Blind or Baas at No 6. Midtjylland create plenty at home (2.90 and 2.43 xG in their last two there) and break directly through their wing-backs. Ajax have conceded in all four of their recent away games. I expect goals at both ends.
Ilbank v Nilufer. Nilufer take sets from almost everyone: at least one in every league match this season, including at THY and Galatasaray. They start fast on serve, but they have lost all nine sets that followed their three 2-0 leads. Ilbank's rebuilt side wins long, tight sets at home and has only been swept by top-four serving teams, which Nilufer are not. Neither side has a closing route that ends this in three, so I'm on the match running long.
