[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva preview and analysis Kick-off: 16 October, 16:45 UTC
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Be’er Sheva meet at the AFAS Stadium in Alkmaar at 16:45 UTC on 16 October for their second match in the UEFA Europa League league phase. AZ Alkmaar lost their opener, while Hapoel Be’er Sheva drew. AZ need their first win at home and have signalled changes to the starting line-up, while Hapoel Be’er Sheva travel with players returning to the squad.
1. Match overview and team form
Domestic league: AZ Alkmaar 3rd, 19 points from 8 matches / Hapoel Be’er Sheva 3rd, 13 points from 6 matches Europa League opener: AZ Alkmaar lost 0-1 away to Sunderland / Hapoel Be’er Sheva drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb Recent home and away form in all competitions: AZ Alkmaar, 6 wins and 4 draws in their last 10 home matches / Hapoel Be’er Sheva, 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 away matches
AZ Alkmaar manager Leeroy Echteld said his side need to win this match. Juventus, Sparta Prague and Benfica still lie ahead in the latter part of the league phase. But with 8 matches to play in 30 days after the Feyenoord game, he said he would make a few changes to the starting line-up. He did not say which positions. Hapoel Be’er Sheva manager Ran Kozuch also wants results in both the domestic league and the Europa League. Both teams have league matches on 18 October, but Hapoel Be’er Sheva must return to Israel after their trip to the Netherlands.
AZ Alkmaar scored 16 goals in their first 5 Eredivisie matches. That early run featured Kees Smit’s forward passing, Ro-Zangelo Daal’s runs down the left and Mexx Meerdink’s finishing, along with defenders joining the attack. Since then, they have scored just 2 goals in 4 matches across all competitions and failed to score away to both Sunderland and Feyenoord. Their build-up faltered under pressure in those two matches, while against deeper-sitting Willem II and Telstar they created shooting chances but lacked the finishing touch. That makes it hard to pin their recent scoring drop on one cause.
Their home form remains strong. AZ Alkmaar have gone 16 matches without a defeat at the AFAS Stadium since losing to NEC in January, and have scored 25 goals in their last 10 home matches in all competitions, according to the data centre. Some of the draws in that run came after AZ had taken the lead. Against Willem II, they were 1-0 up until a substitute lost the ball in midfield in the 81st minute and they conceded. We should assess their ability to create chances at home separately from their ability to protect a lead.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva have won their last 3 league matches without conceding. Across their last 10 matches in all competitions, 6 of their 7 wins have also been clean sheets. The opposition in that three-match league run was Hapoel Petah Tikva, Kiryat Shmona and Ironi Tiberias, though. They also kept clean sheets in both of their European matches against Crvena Zvezda this season, but drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb in their Europa League opener despite having plenty of possession. The data centre records 8 of their 15 shots in that match as coming from outside the box, with an expected goals figure of 0.81. Possession does not necessarily lead to high-quality chances.
The changes to the starting line-ups also matter. AZ Alkmaar will be without Smit and their back-up striker, Zico Hornkamp. Valdemar Andreasen could take over Smit’s role as the central attacking midfielder who plays forward passes. He assisted Meerdink’s winner against Telstar, but that is his only start this season. With Hornkamp absent, AZ have limited options to give Meerdink, who has started all 9 matches this season, a rest up front. We cannot yet say whether the manager’s changes will be concentrated in the attacking midfield or extend to defence and midfield as well.
For Hapoel Be’er Sheva, Lucas Ventura, Itay Rotman, Eliel Peretz and Jibril Diop return to the squad after missing the Dinamo Zagreb match. None is confirmed to start. If Peretz plays, he gives them another option for playing a forward pass out wide after winning the ball. Ventura could change the midfield, while Diop could alter the centre-back pairing. Dan Biton is out with a heart problem and has not started a competitive match this season.
The data centre has no record of a competitive meeting between these sides. Hapoel Be’er Sheva have lost all 4 of their previous European matches against Dutch clubs, but those results say little about today’s tactics given the different managers and squads. Away supporters of Hapoel Be’er Sheva have been banned from attending this match. The team have also had to play their European home matches outside Israel this season for safety reasons, so we should not assume that the absence of away fans alone will change how the match is played.
2. Match-up analysis
Both teams look to play out from the back and keep possession. AZ Alkmaar typically use a 4-2-3-1 and press high, while Hapoel Be’er Sheva build from a 4-3-3 with one defensive midfielder. If Hapoel Be’er Sheva try to move the ball forward with short passes as they did against Dinamo Zagreb, AZ’s forwards and attacking midfielders can press the links between the opposition centre-backs and midfield. If AZ win the ball back in the opposition half, they will have less ground to cover to reach goal.
There is not enough evidence to say Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s press will trouble AZ as much as Sunderland’s or Feyenoord’s. Their strength against Dinamo Zagreb was their organisation in possession. AZ, meanwhile, raised their passing speed and rotated positions more often in the second half against Sunderland to play through the press. If Wouter Goes, Lewis Schouten and Peer Koopmeiners keep their places, AZ will retain their familiar build-up structure. If the changes reach that unit, the opening build-up will need to be judged under different conditions.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva could also sit deeper to reduce the risk of being caught by the press. That would give AZ more of the ball and chances to play into the box, as they did against Willem II and Telstar. AZ had 22 and 15 shots respectively in those two matches, but scored only once in each. With Smit out, how often Andreasen can play forward passes into Meerdink will be important. Diop will have to deal with Meerdink receiving the ball with his back to goal and turning past the defender. Even if Hapoel Be’er Sheva sit back, AZ’s recent finishing suggests the first goal could take time to arrive.
Both sides can leave space in behind when their full-backs join the attack. AZ’s left-back, Mateo Chávez, gets forward to cross and shoot. When he advances, Hapoel Be’er Sheva right winger Zivon East can run into the space behind him. East had a hand in both goals in their 2-0 away win over Crvena Zvezda. At the other end, Ro-Zangelo Daal could find space behind Hapoel Be’er Sheva right-back Guy Mizrahi when he pushes forward. If Hapoel Be’er Sheva send their full-backs forward to support their possession game, AZ will have chances to break quickly too.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s route to goal may lie in winning the ball and breaking quickly rather than long spells of possession. AZ lost the ball while attacking against Willem II and Sunderland, then struggled to stop the opposition from advancing quickly and conceded. Peretz and Amankwah Forson could play forward passes for East to run onto behind Chávez, creating a similar situation. Pedro Amador’s crosses also give Igor Zlatanović a chance to connect with a header. But if Hapoel Be’er Sheva keep possession without progressing beyond shots from outside the box, as they did against Dinamo Zagreb, their scoring chances will fall.
The match may not settle into one pattern after the opening goal either. AZ continue attacking after taking the lead and look for a second, but they have lost possession in midfield during that approach. Hapoel Be’er Sheva have dropped deeper to protect a lead, though Kozuch criticised his team for failing to manage the ball in the second half against Tiberias. Away to Sabah, they conceded from a corner in stoppage time at the end of regulation time, before a player was sent off. Even if Hapoel Be’er Sheva score first, they will have to withstand AZ’s second-half attack.
Echteld’s substitutions are another second-half factor. Against Heerenveen, he changed players at half-time and later in the match as AZ turned a 1-2 deficit into a 3-2 win. A player left out of the starting line-up this time could come on later, giving the manager a chance to adjust any early combination issues. At the same time, a substitute losing the ball has led to a goal conceded by AZ this season, so we should consider their transition defence alongside any extra attacking threat.
3. Final view and prediction
We expect AZ Alkmaar to press higher in the opposition half at home, with Hapoel Be’er Sheva looking to build from the back and break quickly. If Hapoel Be’er Sheva stick to their build-up approach, AZ will have chances to win the ball high. Meerdink and Daal can also attack the space left when Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s defenders push forward. Hapoel Be’er Sheva have a route back into the match through East and Peretz when AZ commit more players to attack.
We lean towards AZ Alkmaar to win. The market has good reason to favour AZ, given their home strength and the difference in quality between the squads. But red cards contributed to Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s heavy defeats, while AZ’s big wins this season were concentrated in August league matches. If Hapoel Be’er Sheva try to play out from the back, AZ should get more chances to score. Yet as AZ continue attacking after taking the lead, Hapoel Be’er Sheva should also find chances to score on the break. That is why we rate Hapoel Be’er Sheva to score once more highly than the market does.
Our score prediction is 3-1 or 2-1, with 3-1 the likelier result. AZ press their way in front, Hapoel Be’er Sheva pull one back on the break, and AZ extend the lead in the second half through their substitutes and continued pressure. The chance that Hapoel Be’er Sheva keep trying to play out after conceding, the tactical match-up that could allow AZ to win the ball in the opposition half, and Echteld’s second-half substitutions all support this view. If Hapoel Be’er Sheva sit back from the start to deny space and AZ’s reshuffled attacking midfield cannot get the ball into the box, both sides may get fewer chances to break and the match could turn into a low-scoring contest.
