Villarreal should claim territory through their press, while Espanyol will look for the first pass beyond it. Lille and Lens should be more balanced, with both teams able to turn a central regain into a quick attack. Across the two games, the quality of the next finish matters more than shot volume alone.
Villarreal can force Espanyol's build-up wide and bring Moreno, Mikautadze or a runner onto the next ball. Espanyol can answer through Expósito and Zaragoza in the space behind Villarreal's midfield. Villarreal took 39 shots across Elche and Valencia but scored twice; Espanyol's recent league attacks yielded few clean chances, and both regulation goals at Sestao came from penalties.
Gueye is suspended after his dismissal at Valencia, changing Villarreal's midfield cover, while Akhomach is out and Pepe has returned as another attacking option. Espanyol still lack Jofre and Kike García, both absent from their latest matches; Sergio García takes the bench after the coaching change and a long cup tie. Villarreal's press should drive the play, but repeated entries need separate clean finishes to create a wide score. That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring Villarreal–Espanyol game.
Lille can win the ball centrally through Mukau and André and release Mbappé or Diaoune before Lens reset. Lens can escape through Haidara and Cuisance to the wingbacks, then bring Thauvin and Hazard together around the box. Against Paris FC, that connection supplied both an equaliser and a separate later finish after Lens had gone behind.
Lille's absent forwards also missed Monaco, but Nianzou played there and is now suspended, changing the first defensive cover. Edouard and Sima missed Lens's Paris FC comeback, so the Thauvin and Hazard route is already current. I expect Lille to threaten early and Lens to find their wider passing and later response. That's why I'm siding with Lens to get the better of Lille.
