Tokyo Verdy's first match under Naoki Soma comes against the side with one of the best goal records in J1, and the usual new-coach story doesn't quite fit. Soma was named only a few days before this match, after Hiroshi Jofuku's dismissal, and in between his squad travelled to Tottori for an Emperor's Cup tie that finished 0-0. That leaves very little time to change how the team plays. Whatever bounce Verdy get is more likely to come from simpler instructions than from a new system.
The problem he inherits is at the front end. Verdy have four goals in eight league games, three of them in five home matches, and they are still without a win. Part of that is the injury list: Koki Morita in midfield and forward Seibun Teranuma both went down in September with layoffs measured in weeks, on top of the long-term knee injuries to Hiroto Yamami, Taiju Yoshida and Kazuya Miyahara. A team that struggles to create chances usually starts by trying to make the game small, and I'd expect Soma to lean that way first.
Hiroshima's numbers look overwhelming at a glance, 20 scored and six conceded, but there's a home-away split worth noticing. Thirteen of those goals came in four home games; on the road it's seven scored and four conceded in four, with two wins, a draw and a defeat. Bartosch Gaul's side is very good away from home, just not the same steamroller. They also had a midweek trip of their own, a 4-0 Emperor's Cup win at Iwaki, and another cup game away at Matsumoto Yamaga follows soon after this one.
So the way I'd frame it: Verdy will try to keep the scoreline close for as long as they can, and Hiroshima don't need to force anything early. The real test of the Soma effect is what happens if Verdy concede first, because that's the moment a short-notice plan built on staying compact has to become something else.
