Both of these games pair a home side with an obvious edge on paper against an away side whose repeated habits match up well. In Salt Lake City, the possession battle leans away from the home team because of a turnover leak that has shown up against every kind of opponent. In Denver, the home side's thin wing group has already given up volume at the arc and the line in this exact personnel setup. Neither home team has shown the margin it is being asked to produce.
Jazz vs Grizzlies. Utah's game is built on the paint and the free-throw line, with 27 to 33 attempts a game behind a big frontcourt of Markkanen, Jackson Jr. and Bailey. Its problem is the ball: 18, 18 and 17 turnovers in three real games, against opponents who made 8, 15 and 6 steals. The leak does not depend on pressure. Memphis forced 18 with only 8 steals in the first meeting, and its own giveaways sit around 12 to 13 against teams that don't press, and Utah makes only 4 to 9 steals a game. That is roughly four or five extra possessions for Memphis.
Zach Edey is out for Memphis, which takes away the rim protector and is Utah's best answer, worth a few points in the paint. But Memphis has already played one game without him, winning at Sacramento and still taking the boards 54-44 behind Boozer and Coward. Jerome's 45 in the first meeting was above his normal, so I use his usual high-20s level. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, Memphis with the flight. Expect Utah to start well, Memphis to take the middle quarters off turnovers, and a close fourth. That's why I'm siding with Memphis with the points.
Nuggets vs Warriors. Golden State's 0-3 needs reading. The Phoenix loss came without Curry, Green, Horford and Podziemski, the Lakers loss came on 8 of 36 from three, and Memphis beat them by three. All four of those players are cleared and back. Golden State gets to the line every night (27, 29, 32 attempts) and fires 36 to 41 threes, and with Green on the floor their hands produced 15 and 12 steals.
Denver is without Cam Johnson, Strawther and Spencer Jones, with Diallo doubtful. That same thin group gave New Orleans 39 free throws and 47 threes and needed overtime after trailing by 23 to win by six. Jokic against a frontcourt with no true centre is Denver's real edge, but Golden State has played that way all season, and with Green and Horford in the Memphis game they held up at the rim. Denver should close stronger late, but the gap it needs is bigger than what this cell has produced. That's why I'm siding with Golden State with the points.
