Both of these games turn on ball security. In Utah, a young Jazz backcourt that keeps coughing the ball up meets one of the league's most active forcing groups, while the Jazz barely pressure anyone in return. In Brooklyn, an Indiana guard group thinned by injuries has already leaked turnovers with this exact personnel, and it now faces a team that has forced twenty-plus in both of its games. The two games look different, but in both the turnover count points the same way against the more famous team.
Utah have turned it over 18 times in each of their two regular-season games, once against Memphis, who don't press much, and once against a New Orleans side that racked up 15 steals. The same number against a light and a heavy forcer tells you the problem is Utah's own handlers, not the opponent. The Lakers forced 16 against Golden State and 25 against the Clippers, with Thybulle starting next to Reaves and Doncic in the passing lanes. The other half of the ledger matters just as much: the Lakers' own turnovers came against two teams with 13 to 15 steals, and Utah have managed only 4 and 9. The pressure that made Doncic careless is not something the Jazz bring.
Inside, Utah have no real starting centre with Nurkic out, so Bailey starts and Hayes comes off the bench. Kessler, in his first game back in Utah, finished 10 of 14 against the Clippers' real bigs. Utah's best answer is getting to the line, with 33 free-throw attempts in both games, through Jackson Jr., George and Collier, plus a big three-point volume from Markkanen and Bailey. That can keep it close, and Utah have won first quarters at home. I expect the Lakers to build their lead in the second and third quarters as the turnovers pile up, and Utah's free throws to trim it late. That is why I'm siding with the Lakers to win the game, not to win big.
In Brooklyn, Indiana are missing McConnell and Sheppard, which leaves rookie Quenton Jackson as the only backup guard. In the one game with exactly this group, against Dallas, Indiana turned it over 19 times and lost the second quarter 16-33. Their ball security has leaked in four of their last five games. Brooklyn forced 20 against Charlotte and 23 at Cleveland. Brooklyn give the ball away too, but Indiana force only 14 a night, the lightest pressure the Nets have faced.
Brooklyn are on the second night of a back-to-back without Brown Jr., so I expect their pressure to be smaller than it was after three days' rest. Indiana's paint scoring against a soft Brooklyn interior is real and is the reason they should win. But Indiana have made only 16 of 62 threes, so their margin has to come slowly, from twos and free throws. They also play Milwaukee the next day, which gives them a reason to rest starters rather than run up a lead. The likely shape is Indiana's starters ahead early and Brooklyn's pressure winning the minutes when Haliburton sits. That's why I'm siding with Brooklyn to stay within reach.
