Freiburg v Bayern looks like a routine away win, but the way it was settled is more interesting. Bayern were two goals up at the break, Upamecano from an Olise assist and Gnabry from a Nathaniel Brown cross, and Freiburg then spent the second half chasing with 44% of the ball. Their only goal was an own goal by Tom Bischof late on, and Olise added a third in the fifth added minute.
Both sides had 17 shots, but they were not the same kind of shots. In our records Freiburg put only 5 on target and had 7 blocked, while Bayern had 9 on target and 13 of their shots from inside the box. The expected goals gap (2.99 to 1.05) says the final score was fair.
The part I'd carry forward is the calendar. This was Bayern's third match in under ten days after Leipzig and Arsenal, and Magdeburg in the cup and Dortmund in the league follow. They also changed their front line late (Saibari for Gnabry, Karl for Ito), which looks like minutes being managed. My question: does Bayern's controlled, early-lead way of winning survive a match where Dortmund make them chase for once?
Sources: our match records for Freiburg v Bayern (final stats and events) and our schedule data for Bayern's fixtures.
