Two home sides that create far more than they allow, each facing an opponent whose own chance numbers have been thin for weeks. Stuttgart meet a Gladbach back line that has leaked chances under both of its coaches this season. Guimaraes' league table hides how completely they have controlled their home games. In both matches, what matters most is what the stronger side produces, not what the weaker side is missing.
Stuttgart v Gladbach. Hoeness's side play a possession game with a man-oriented press, and against weaker opponents they create plenty: 3.47 xG against Koln, 2.47 at Paderborn. Gladbach have not held anyone below 1.31 xG in six league games, and that includes the games before their injury list grew (3.96 at Leipzig, 2.31 against Elversberg). Blessin's 3-4-2-1 tightened things at Koln, but it created only 0.47 xG against Hoffenheim.
The key matchup is Stuttgart's front four against a patched Gladbach back three. Both regular centre-backs, Itakura and Leszczynski, are expected to miss out, so Hashioka, a full-back by trade, steps inside. Gladbach's forwards are gone too, Lidberg the latest, so their box threat comes down to Machino or a false nine. What they keep is the wing-back route: Scally and Ullrich arriving on the break behind Assignon, who comes in for the injured Vagnoman. That is where a Gladbach goal comes from.
The flow I expect is Stuttgart pinning the wing-backs early. Once Stuttgart lead, Gladbach have to open up, and they have conceded late in several games (Mainz, Elversberg). Stuttgart are three days on from Atletico, but a bench with Undav, Demirovic and Sauer covers the last half hour. That is why I'm siding with Stuttgart to win this one with room to spare.
Guimaraes v Maritimo. Margarido's Guimaraes attack through overlapping full-backs and corners. At home in the league they made 3.14 xG against Nacional and 2.48 against Casa Pia, and allowed no more than 0.52 in any home game with data. Their problem has been finishing, not creating. Maritimo, newly promoted, sit deep and live on moments: their four most recent league games produced 0.12 to 0.86 xG, and their centre-backs Szalai and Correia score from set pieces.
Maritimo's midfield is without Danilovic and Yellu Santiago, which makes it even harder for them to keep the ball or press Guimaraes' first pass. Their set pieces and late counters remain, but each needs a single moment. Ndoye is back from suspension to add presence in the box. With this much volume, Guimaraes should get the goal that Maritimo's low output struggles to answer. That's why I'm backing Guimaraes at home.
