Two cup ties, two different shapes. In Rotterdam both sides create plenty and defend loosely, so the chance numbers point to a busy game whoever wins. At Craven Cottage the home side own the ball and the territory against a visitor whose back line is badly depleted.
Sparta Rotterdam versus Sittard: the results table says Sittard are the form side and Sparta have only two wins in ten, but the chance numbers tell another story. Sparta average about 1.8 expected goals for and 1.9 against across their last ten league games, and Sittard sit at roughly 0.9 for and 2.1 against. Together that is a lot of chance volume at both ends. Sittard score from few shots, which is not a repeatable route, while Sparta's 22-shot, 3.4 expected-goal game against Willem II shows what the hosts can produce. Lineups are not known and cup rotation is possible, but both defences have leaked in every recent stretch. That's why I'm expecting goals in this one.
Fulham versus Crystal Palace: Fulham average around 60 percent possession, 15.6 shots and 1.8 expected goals over their last ten, and their last two opponents created almost nothing against them. Palace come in with the first-choice keeper and two centre-backs out, and they conceded five at Brighton and two to Newcastle in their last two league games. Palace's route is the one from September, when they scored three at Craven Cottage on the break and from set pieces, so a draw is a real outcome. That's why I'm siding with Fulham not to lose this one.
