Two Korean matches, both built around a stronger team playing a weakened version of itself. In Seoul, Anyang's turnover-forcing guards run into an SK side with a full-time import big, while Anyang have no second big and are managing their only big's minutes. In the cup, Hyundai is the better volleyball team, but it has been rotating its stars and has given away sets. In both matches the gap between the teams looks smaller than their records suggest.
SK vs Anyang. Anyang are 6-1 and win on possessions. They force about 14 turnovers a game, give up about 8, and take a lot of threes with a deep guard group. Their weak spot is the glass when they have no second big: KT beat them on the boards 49-30, Mobis 40-28. Thomas is still out with a bone bruise, and Mooney played the last game with a taped knee while his coach talked openly about limiting his minutes. SK, by contrast, always have Warney or Hicks on the floor. In the opener they took 49 two-point shots, won the boards and turned it over only twice. That came against Sono, the same Sono that forced 14 turnovers from Anyang. SK lost that game because Sono hit 16 threes.
The key window is the middle quarters, when Mooney sits and SK's import big faces a lineup of wings and guards. Anyang's pressure is real, but SK's handlers have already held up against a team that forces turnovers, so the possession swing should be a few trips, not a blowout. The last two seasons of this matchup have mostly been decided by six points or fewer. I expect a close finish, and that's why I'm siding with SK getting points at home.
Samsung vs Hyundai. Hyundai has three finishers in Leo, Heo Su-bong and Zhang Chuan, and serve runs that close out sets. Samsung's reception was the league's worst last season and is still the biggest weakness on the court. But Samsung's new two-man attack of Hoki and Kim Woo-jin took a set off champion KAL and pushed another to deuce. And in Hyundai's opener against OK, coach Blanc pulled his top trio during a set that got away, and OK's serve shook Hyundai's reception.
These are back-to-back cup games, and Hyundai already has a win in the group. A clean sweep needs Hyundai's first six to play every set and Samsung's reception to break in all three. Both teams' openers went four and five sets. I expect Hyundai to win but Samsung to take a set, so I'm on the long, high-scoring side of this match.
