Sanfrecce Hiroshima against Shimizu S-Pulse looks like a ball-dominant home side meeting a low-block visitor that struggles to create. Hiroshima's content at home has been strong, while Shimizu defend deep, concede a lot of shots and score under a goal a game.
Hiroshima keep about two thirds of possession and generate close to eighteen shots and nearly eight corners a game. At home they have scored sixteen and conceded one in their last four. Shimizu sit around 36 percent possession, faced more than fourteen shots a game in the recent matches with data, and have lost five of eight away over the last twenty games.
Both sides played a few days ago and lost heavily: Hiroshima 0-4 at Nagasaki, though the chances were not far from even, and Shimizu 0-5 at home to Machida, where the expected goals were hugely one-sided. Only one Hiroshima defender carries a doubtful flag and Shimizu show no list, so I do not lean on lineup news here. A cup tie next week brings some rotation risk, but the home volume against a block that has been breaking is the main story.
I expect Hiroshima to take territory, win corners and get the first goal before the hour. Once Shimizu have to come out, the gap in quality should open up a two-goal margin. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima to win by more than one goal.
