This looks like a close, evenly matched opener with no obvious route to a blowout. Both sides come in with only preseason rows, and those carry little weight because rotations and minutes were experimental. The real picture comes from how these two teams played each other in the spring.
In that playoff series the Spurs took the later games, including a road win at Oklahoma City. Their structure is simple: Wembanyama protects the rim and anchors the half-court, and home court in San Antonio adds to that. Oklahoma City wins through Gilgeous-Alexander's drives and free throws, plus bench depth and a bit more rest.
The absence lists on both sides are small. San Antonio is missing Harris and Quaintance, while Oklahoma City is missing Topic, Oweh and Sorber, mostly guards and a backup big. Neither list takes out a star, so the matchup between Wembanyama's size and Oklahoma City's attack on the basket stays intact.
I expect a competitive game that can swing in the second and third quarters if the Spurs control the paint, with Oklahoma City's free throws and depth pushing back late. That's why I'm siding with the Spurs at home.
