In this deciding Game 5, run output has followed the opposing starter, not momentum. Samsung were held to one and two runs by Naile and scored six and eight against everyone else, and Naile is not the starter. In Goyang the question is two healthy imports and a rested home side against a KT team on a 24-hour turnaround that rarely steals the ball.
Samsung vs KIA. This is the Game 2 pairing again: Jurado against Oller in Daegu. Oller has been excellent against Samsung in Gwangju. In Daegu this year he has given up 13 runs in under six innings across two starts, including the four-run third in Game 2 when Koo Ja-wook's go-ahead hit and Diaz's homer broke it open. Jurado held this KIA lineup to its lowest output of the series in Game 2 over six and two-thirds innings. He also went seven innings with three runs against them in Daegu in the regular season.
KIA have the better back end in Jeon Sang-hyun and Cho Sang-woo. Samsung are still without closer Kim Jae-yoon, but that absence has been part of every game of this series. The match should be decided in the first three innings. If Samsung reach Oller early again, KIA's middle relief has to cover a long stretch before the late arms. Samsung's cold core numbers come mostly from the two Naile games. That's why I'm siding with Samsung at home.
Sono vs KT. Sono play a high-volume three-point game around Lee Jung-hyun with two imports. KT win with size and the glass through Paris Bass and Trey Porter. KT played in Anyang the day before, with Bass at 34 minutes, and their previous second night ended in a 16-point loss. They are also without domestic centre Ha Yoon-ki behind Porter. KT steal very little, so Sono's main leak, their turnovers, is not something this opponent punishes. Sono also get to the line well at home.
The swing piece is Johnny O'Bryant. He left Sono's last game early with a back spasm the club called minor, and Sono have had nearly two days to recover. With him on the floor, Sono can keep a big import on KT's glass all game and lean on their shooting and home whistle while KT's legs fade late. That's why I'm with Sono to win at home.
