Phoenix has enough creation to make its rematch with Portland competitive after an uneven opener. Portland's drives and second shots can turn a Suns lead into another close finish. San Antonio can disrupt Dallas's first drive with pressure and rim help. Dallas's added creation gives it a way to answer a Spurs scoring burst.
Booker, Green, Bridges and Ighodaro give Phoenix several ways into the paint. Clingan's work on the offensive glass gives Portland repeated chances, while Avdija, Lillard and Holiday can create after the first pass. Morant is out, but Henderson started and Holiday handled the reserve unit in Portland's last road win; Phoenix's Goodwin and Fleming remain unresolved. Portland's recent comeback and Phoenix's late rebounding and turnover problems point to another Blazers answer, so I'm siding with Portland on the road.
San Antonio's pressure and Wembanyama's help can turn Dallas's first drive into a difficult shot. Dallas now has more ways to reset that possession than it had in the first meeting. The middle quarters will test whether a Spurs surge becomes lasting separation. Dallas's recent late scoring shows a path to respond after that first burst.
Irving and Flagg both missed the earlier meeting and have since created together against strong opposition; Irving also led Dallas's late comeback against Houston. Christie is newly out, but Irving can still find Gafford or Flagg after Wembanyama helps, and Dallas can keep producing useful shots after a Spurs run. I'm siding with the Mavericks to keep the game within reach.
