Two Korean games turn on the same kind of question: what is left in the frontcourt after a big piece has gone. In the KBL, JungKwanJang's record was built with a centre who is now injured, and the group replacing him has played only one game together. In the WKBL, Samsung Life lost its post star to retirement and has answered by rebuilding around speed and threes. In both games the table and last season's meetings describe teams that no longer exist.
KoGas v JungKwanJang first. JungKwanJang reached 6-4 through ball security and guard depth, turning it over about 8 times a game and forcing about 13. But all six wins came with John Mooney, and without him they are 0-3. The scoring held up; the defence did not, conceding 84, 95 and 92. Their coach says the two-man coverage built with Mooney has to be rebuilt.
The key matchup is Aluma and Ratliffe against Thomas and Reid, who stand 200cm and 195cm. When these teams met in October, Mooney had 17 rebounds and JungKwanJang won the glass 40-28. That piece is gone, and KoGas has won the boards by 18 and 15 in its last two, though against depleted sides. Thomas is one game back from a knee bone bruise after about 30 minutes, and his rest spells are where the size gap should show. JungKwanJang's best answer is its guard group rotating on Belangel, because KoGas's other domestic scoring comes and goes.
Expect a tight first quarter, with the second and third as KoGas's chance to gain through second shots, then a close finish at home between Belangel and Aluma and the visiting guards. JungKwanJang's last two games were both decided by two points, so a one-possession ending is very much part of the picture. That's why I'm siding with KoGas here, with cover for a narrow result rather than needing a clear win.
Samsung Life v Hana Bank next. Samsung lost Bae Hye-yoon and Kim Dan-bi to retirement and Yoon Ye-bin to KB, and traded-in forward Lee Da-yeon had foot surgery in August. Coach Ha says Lee Hae-ran has improved but cannot yet create for team-mates as Bae did, so the plan is fast shots and at least 30 three-point attempts. That plan sits on a team that finished last in the league last season at 4.6 threes made and 24.7%. Its 23 threes in an October game came against a university side, and it then scored 56 against BNK.
Hana Bank puts Jin An and Yang In-young into exactly that gap, and my sources name no direct replacement for Bae. BNK out-rebounded Samsung 38-24 in the cup. Saki gives Hana a first option inside and out, and the coach wants ten players sharing the minutes after the short rotation that wore the team down late last season. Samsung's answer is Lee Hae-ran driving at a second big, plus the energy of a home opener, which should be strongest early.
The second and third quarters should decide it, with long Samsung misses feeding Hana's rebounders and the deeper rotation helping late. That's why I'm siding with Hana Bank to win this on the road.
