[26-27 UEL Europa League] Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb preview and analysis Kick-off: 20:00 UTC, November 5
Sunderland’s league position alone might lead us to underestimate the home side’s attack. But we also need to consider how they have created chances in Europe and the problems GNK Dinamo Zagreb showed defending the flanks before their change of coach.
1. Match overview and team form
Sunderland sit bottom of the Premier League, but they are ninth in the Europa League with an unbeaten record after three matches (Sport Mole, November 3). They posted expected goals of 2.96 against AZ Alkmaar and 2.76 against Lech Poznań. In the league, they have often had little time to attack, while in Europe they have been able to carry the ball forward. The problems have been turning chances into goals and mistakes at the back. In their 3-1 defeat to Coventry City on November 1, poor handling of the ball in dangerous areas and losing possession led to goals conceded. They had 17 shots, with only two on target. Manager Regis Le Bris also pointed to his side’s own mistakes as the reason for the defeat (Sky Sports, November 1).
Sunderland will be without Daniel Ballard, while Nordi Mukiele’s availability is uncertain (BBC, November 4; Sport Mole, November 3). Predicted line-ups agree that Luke O’Nien will play at centre-back. After being involved in the goals conceded against Coventry, he now has to deal with Dion Drena Beljo’s movement in the box. Sunderland beat Brentford 3-2 in the EFL Cup with three goals coming from attacks down the right, but Jocelin Ta Bi, who was involved in all three, is not in the Europa League squad (Sport Mole, November 3). Le Bris cannot reproduce those same scoring moves.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb changed managers after losing to Rudeš on October 31. Jerko Leko, who had been in charge of the B team, takes interim charge for his first match against Sunderland (Sportnet, November 4). Leko said he would pick players who can exploit the spaces Sunderland leave when attacking, and also hinted at changes with a league match against Varaždin coming three days later (Sportnet, November 3-4). Scott McKenna, their most-used defender, is injured and is not expected to play, even though he travelled to the UK (Tportal, November 3). Before the coaching change, Dinamo conceded repeatedly from crosses and low passes into the box in a 4-2 defeat to NEC Nijmegen. Beljo scored twice in that match and also netted the winner against RSC Anderlecht.
2. Match-up analysis
Sunderland can target passes from the flanks into the box. GNK Dinamo Zagreb conceded in that way against NEC Nijmegen, and they will have to put together a centre-back pairing without McKenna today. Sunderland also scored through forward runs down the flanks and crosses against Brentford. Ta Bi is unavailable, though, and most of Sunderland’s shots against Coventry missed the target. Getting down the flanks and finishing the resulting box challenges are separate tasks. Leko said he is wary of Sunderland’s aerial ability (Sportnet, November 4).
At the other end, the duel between Beljo and O’Nien will matter. Even if GNK Dinamo Zagreb do not create many attacking chances, a Sunderland turnover near the penalty area like the ones against Coventry could give Beljo an immediate opportunity to finish. The spaces Leko wants to attack will also open up behind Sunderland’s advanced full-backs. If Arber Hoxha starts on the flank, Dinamo can target those areas from the outset. If he begins on the bench, the threat will emerge after the substitutions. Leko’s starting choices and substitution patterns have yet to be seen in a match, so we cannot assume today’s counterattacks will resemble Dinamo’s away form under the previous coach.
Both teams have their next league match in mind. Sunderland play Chelsea three days later, but they made five or six changes to the starting line-up in their previous Europa League matches and still recorded a win and a draw. For GNK Dinamo Zagreb, the new manager’s choices of players on the flanks and through the middle will affect both their attack and defence.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Sunderland to take the lead by attacking down the flanks against a Dinamo defence without McKenna, with the match likely to finish as a one-goal win. The volume of chances they have created in Europe points to the home side. But they scored just once despite creating plenty against both AZ Alkmaar and Lech Poznań, and repeated mistakes at the back against Coventry. Beljo still has a route to turn those errors into chances in the box.
The market also gives Sunderland a strong chance of winning by a wide margin. We put more weight on their finishing and their defending after taking the lead than on the number of chances they create. Sunderland conceded after going ahead against Lech Poznań and Brentford. The defensive errors Le Bris admitted to after the Coventry match are also still fresh (Sky Sports, November 1). If Sunderland turn an early attack down the flank into a goal, GNK Dinamo Zagreb will have to commit more players to the attack in their first match under a new manager. That could lead to a bigger margin than expected.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman’s available markets] Full-time result: Home win, Sunderland’s flank attacks match up well against an away defence without McKenna, while the visitors will rotate with their league match taking priority Handicap -1: Draw, the hosts have not converted enough chances and have conceded after taking the lead, while Beljo gives the visitors a way back with his finishing in the box Handicap -2: Away win, Sunderland would need to score repeatedly and overcome their poor finishing to win by three or more goals Over/under 2.5: Over, the hosts’ volume of chances will test an away defence without McKenna, and mistakes in Sunderland’s own defensive third could give Beljo opportunities
