[26-27 UECL Conference League] Copenhagen vs Iberia 1999 Tbilisi preview and analysis Kick-off: November 5, 20:00 UTC
Copenhagen are likely to spend long spells attacking in this match. The key questions are when they can turn their shots against a deep defense into goals, and how they manage the squad ahead of the weekend derby.
1. Match overview and team form
Copenhagen are unbeaten at home this season, with 6 wins and 2 draws from 8 matches (Data Center). But their recent league home games show that attacking volume has not translated into wins. They drew 1-1 with Odense despite taking 22 shots and recording an expected goals figure of 2.23, then drew 1-1 with AGF Aarhus after registering 24 shots. Bo Svensson said Copenhagen were slow to deal with the opposition’s quick free kick and counterattack in the second half against AGF Aarhus (Copenhagen’s official website). They will need to turn their long spells on the ball into more goals against Iberia 1999 Tbilisi, who are likely to sit deep.
Copenhagen have more than one route to goal. Against SC Braga, substitute Andreas Cornelius finished a Birger Meling cross, while their goal in the most recent match against Sønderjyske came after they won the ball through pressing. The club has listed Felix Beijmo, Thapelo Maseko, Marvin Nasnas and Magnus Mattsson as injured. Robert was included in the squad (Copenhagen’s official website, November 4). Beijmo’s absence changes the right-sided combination in the back three and the aerial options at set pieces. Robert gives them another option in attack with Maseko out, but his starting role and minutes have not been decided.
Since Levan Korghalidze took charge, Iberia 1999 Tbilisi have recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 6 Georgian league matches. In their 2 European matches, though, they managed only 1 shot on target in each (Data Center). Away to Sint-Truiden VV, they conceded first after defending deep and then failing to track an attack built down the flank. Their goal against Mjällby AIF came from a penalty by Jemali Giorgi Jinjolava. They also conceded late in both matches. Jemali Giorgi Jinjolava said he was ready to play despite a minor muscle injury (Crystal Sport, November 5). He takes penalties and also plays at left back, so being ready to play should be considered separately from his ability to manage 90 minutes.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is Copenhagen’s wide supply against Iberia 1999 Tbilisi’s back four. Copenhagen scored from a cross on the left against SC Braga, while a cross from the right against FK Crvena zvezda led to an own goal. Iberia 1999 Tbilisi failed to stop an attack that continued near the goal line against Sint-Truiden VV. Copenhagen need to use their wing-backs and players in the second line to move the defense around, then find a finisher in the box. That would help them avoid a game like the one against Odense, where they had plenty of shots but little to show for them. The condition of Jinjolava, who is expected to cover the left side of the defense, will also affect how well they handle that threat.
At the other end, Iberia 1999 Tbilisi’s rare counterattacks will test Copenhagen’s defense. Against AGF Aarhus, Copenhagen had a spell when they were caught out by a quick restart and counterattack while pushing forward. The right side of their back three will also have a new combination with Beijmo unavailable. If Iberia 1999 Tbilisi can get the first pass to Zviad Natchkebia and Amiran Dzagania, they can target that area. But they created very little in their 2 European matches, so if Copenhagen block forward passes in midfield immediately after losing the ball, those counters may not lead to shots.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Copenhagen to attack by supplying the box from wide areas, then use attacking substitutes in the second half to extend the lead if the goal takes time to come. Iberia 1999 Tbilisi may hold out with a deep defense and saves from Giorgi Makaridze, but their established attacking routes are limited if they need to come back from behind. The fact that their only goal in 2 European matches came from a penalty supports that view (Data Center). If Copenhagen build a big lead, they are likely to focus on managing the game rather than adding more goals.
We agree with the market. The case for Copenhagen rests less on their home record than on how few examples there are of Iberia 1999 Tbilisi sustaining attacks after winning the ball back. The risk of conceding that undermined Copenhagen in 2 recent league home draws looks lower against this opponent, whose attacking threat is limited. That said, Bo Svensson said he would manage the squad with the Brøndby match at the weekend in mind (Copenhagen’s official website, November 2). We do not expect them to keep committing attacking players after opening up a lead.
Our view changes if Copenhagen go a long time without scoring despite taking plenty of shots. In that situation, a set piece or penalty for Iberia 1999 Tbilisi would carry more weight.
[Final picks by market, Betman lines] Full-time result: Home win. Iberia 1999 Tbilisi have few ways to move forward after winning the ball back. Copenhagen should therefore be able to keep players committed to attack over the 90 minutes, and the kind of single goal they conceded in their 2 league home draws is less likely to happen again against this opponent. Handicap -1: Home win. Iberia 1999 Tbilisi have few attacking options to fight back if they fall behind, while Copenhagen have ways to add a goal through crosses and attacking substitutes. Handicap -2: Home win. Iberia 1999 Tbilisi conceded late in both European matches, and Copenhagen could extend the gap with a second-half attacking substitute, as they did against SC Braga. Handicap -3.5: Away win. Svensson will manage the squad ahead of the derby, so after building a big lead Copenhagen are likely to take off starters early and focus on protecting it rather than adding more goals. Over/Under 3.5: Under. Most of the scoring is likely to come from Copenhagen. Their finishing against a deep defense and their squad management ahead of the derby should also limit their goal tally.
