[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] Sturm Graz vs NK Celje Preview and Analysis Kick-off: November 5, 20:00 UTC
Sturm Graz look to create chances by pressing opponents as they build from the back, while NK Celje try to bypass that pressure with forward passes. Where each side can play the ball will shape the kind of chances they create.
1. Match overview and team form
Sturm Graz are 19th in the Europa League with 4 points, while NK Celje are 29th with 1 point (Laola1, November 4). Coach Fabio Ingolitsch said NK Celje are good at positional play but may not be used to high-intensity football (Sky Sport Austria, November 4). In their 1-0 win over Olympique de Marseille on October 23, Luca Weinhandl set up the winner for Oumar Diakité after the visitors lost the ball in the middle of their own half. After a 1-1 draw with Wolfsberger AC on November 1, Ingolitsch said his side had been poor in possession (ORF, November 1). If their opponents avoid short passes in dangerous areas, Sturm Graz will need to find another way to attack.
Sturm Graz beat Olympique de Marseille and thrashed Grazer AK 6-1 even without Otar Kiteishvili. The goalkeeper is a newer variable. Ammar Helac took over after Daniil Khudyakov suffered a fractured shin and kept a clean sheet against Olympique de Marseille, but he has played less than half as many minutes as Khudyakov this season. Diakité came on as a substitute against Wolfsberger AC and is expected to return to the starting lineup this time (Laola1, November 4). Despite Salzburg coming up three days later, Sturm have made few changes to their recent starting lineups. The schedule may have more of an effect on the timing of substitutions than on the starting eleven.
NK Celje initially focused on cutting down the goals they conceded after Zoran Zeljkovic took charge, and have scored 9 goals in their last 4 competitive matches. They came from behind to draw 2-2 with Salzburg after losing the ball in their own half and conceding in the 9th minute. Blaž Kramer scored from a long pass, then substitute Armandas Kučys equalised. Zeljkovic said his team need to be ready for turnovers and get the second line forward quickly while the striker holds the ball up (Planet Nogomet, November 4). Mario Kvesić, who was substituted as a precaution after feeling a muscle problem against Nafta, could affect the attacking combination, as could the decision on whether to start a second striker. The trip to Graz is 122 km, and both sides had 5 days off after their previous matches (Ekipa, November 4).
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is around NK Celje defensive midfielder Ivan Ćalušić. If he is the lone player in front of the back four as expected, Valmir Matoshi and Simon Seidl, playing behind Diakité, can press the passes into him (Sport Mole, November 3). Sturm Graz's best chance against Olympique de Marseille also came from an error in the opposition's build-up. NK Celje conceded after losing the ball in their own half early against Salzburg as well. If this press works, Sturm Graz can create close-range chances for Diakité.
Zeljkovic's response will be to reduce short passes at the back and play the ball forward to the strikers earlier. If Kučys can hold it up and the second line joins quickly, Celje can target the space behind Sturm Graz wing-backs Jurgen Heil and Luis Balbo as they push up to win the ball. Against Salzburg, Kramer received a long pass, faced a defender one-on-one and scored. The effectiveness of this route depends on which players can hold the ball up and on Kvesić's fitness. If Sturm Graz take the lead first and drop deeper, there will be less space behind the wing-backs for Celje to attack.
Sturm Graz also have set pieces to fall back on. Against Grazer AK, Seidl's corner found Jon Gorenc Stanković, who headed in. But if Sturm lose the ball just after sending defenders forward, they will have to deal with a Celje counterattack. Their defensive positions when the press fails matter just as much as how often they win the ball back.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Sturm Graz to press around Ćalušić, take the lead and then sit deeper to protect a one-goal advantage. Ingolitsch's plan to win the ball high matches the early goal Celje conceded against Salzburg after losing possession in their own half. Sturm Graz also protected their lead against Olympique de Marseille after going ahead, giving up the ball and looking to counter. Plans for the squad ahead of Salzburg could also affect substitutions in the second half (Laola1, November 4).
The market expects the teams' attacking transitions to produce plenty of goals. We see it differently. If Celje reduce their short passing in dangerous areas, as Zeljkovic has indicated, Sturm Graz will have fewer of their main opportunities. Ingolitsch's comments about their weakness in possession after the Wolfsberger AC match become more relevant again (ORF, November 1). If NK Celje get through the first 30 minutes without conceding and keep connecting their forward passes, Sturm Graz will have to spend longer in possession trying to break them down, reducing the home side's advantage.
[Final picks · by market · Betman markets] Full-time result: Home win. Sturm's pressing around Ćalušić and Seidl's set pieces look more reliable than Celje's unsettled attacking routes. Handicap -1: Draw. Sturm may sit back to protect a lead, while their chances depend on winning the ball back, which should keep the margin down. Handicap -2: Away win. Sturm would need repeated goals from turnovers to win by 3 or more, while Celje's coach has said they will try to limit those turnovers. Over/Under 2.5: Under. Both coaches' plans should reduce the main scoring routes, and Sturm have struggled to attack when they have the ball.
