Both of these matches come down to one team's main weapon running straight into the other team's most repeated leak. In Phoenix, Orlando's paint attack meets a Suns defence that keeps fouling and keeps losing the defensive glass, with no true five-man available. In San Francisco, Golden State's three-point volume meets a Miami defence that has given up a flood of threes to every recent opponent. Both meetings also come with a schedule edge, because the home side in Phoenix and the visitors in San Francisco are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Phoenix win when Booker and Green get downhill and to the line. They lose on the line and on the glass. Over their last eight boxed games, opponents averaged more than 32 free-throw attempts against them, around 35 at home, and out-rebounded them by about six a game. With Mark Williams out since September, the centre minutes are split between Maluach and Ighodaro, and coach Ott has said himself that the defence is built around the five-man. Booker has also fouled out in each of his last two games.
Without Banchero and Suggs, Orlando have one plan under Sweeney: attack the paint. Wagner is the creator, Wendell Carter plays big minutes at the five, and Anthony Black is back as a second handler who gets to the line. Their better form without Banchero has come on the road, at New York and Toronto. Their turnovers are a real problem and Phoenix will win that battle. But the extra free throws and second chances should count for more, and Phoenix's tired legs should show in the third quarter. That's why I'm siding with Orlando to win the game.
Golden State's five-game run has been built on volume: 35 to 49 threes a night, with three of those wins coming on threes alone and the other two at the foul line at home on cold-shooting nights. Miami have allowed around 42 three-point attempts a game across eight different opponents, so that is not a one-off. Their own shooting from deep sits around a third, which leaves Klay Thompson as their only real volume answer.
Miami's best route is Giannis and Adebayo in the paint against a Warriors frontcourt without Porzingis. That is also the part of their roster most worn down: both played 41 minutes in an overtime win the night before, and Giannis shot 8 of 20 with a wrapped wrist. Golden State come in on three days of rest with Horford back, so the closeouts should get harder for Miami after halftime. That's why I'm siding with Golden State to win at home.
