This Philadelphia and New York meeting is a clash of two possession edges. Philadelphia's ball pressure takes the ball away from a Knicks side that turns it over about fifteen times a game. New York answers on the offensive glass with Towns and Drummond against a thin Sixers frontcourt. Those two edges roughly cancel, and that leaves stars, the home floor and shooting to decide it.
The structure is clear from five games on each side. Philadelphia forces turnovers in every game, and the Knicks give the ball away in every game. In the opener at the Garden, New York had 15 giveaways to Philadelphia's 12. Over a full game that is worth about three extra possessions to the Sixers. New York wins the boards in every game too, by around eight to ten, which is worth two or three possessions back. Neither column is a one-off, so I weigh them equally.
The key matchup is Brunson against Maxey. Brunson broke his slump with 38 at Chicago on a hot team shooting night, well above New York's own level. On the other side, Embiid, LeBron and Maxey give Philadelphia more ways to get to the line at home. The backup centre minutes, where Adem and Wade fill in, are the Knicks' best window on the glass.
On availability, Embiid and LeBron are both off the report after playing at Indiana. Edgecombe is fine. Jaylen Brown is questionable with knee soreness after playing 34 minutes in that game. For New York, Alvarado has been out for a while and Towns played through a taped wrist. Philadelphia's long injury list in the frontcourt is not new. Those players were already missing in every recent game, including the win at the Garden.
I expect Philadelphia's good stretches to come off Knicks giveaways, and New York's runs to come in the second and fourth quarters when Embiid sits and the glass tilts. Late in the game, Maxey and Simons give the Sixers the shot-makers to close, as they did with a big fourth quarter at Indiana.
This Sixers core beat New York by six on the road while shooting 27.5% from three, and it has won by five or more with its stars together. The Knicks' own margin over five games is about level. At home and with the turnover battle on their side, that's why I'm backing Philadelphia to win.
