Perth and the Breakers are a clash of styles: Perth win by getting more shots, the Breakers by getting better ones. Their first meeting this season was played under almost the same lineups as this one. Perth won it by four only because nearly everything outside the paint went their way. Take out the one-off shooting and that game looks like a coin flip or better for New Zealand.
The Breakers run through Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who averages 26.6 points and 9.6 assists and scored 30 on 12-of-19 in Perth last time. Around him is the league's best three-point shooting team at 42.3%. Their weak spots are the glass and the lack of a second ball-handler, with Le Gassick and James both out. Perth spread their scoring across Pepper, Dell'Orso, Doolittle and Windler, and they crash the offensive boards.
In the first meeting Perth had 19 offensive rebounds to 10 and 22 second-chance points. They also hit 15 of 35 from three while the Breakers made only 8 of 24, and they won the free-throw line by five. With all of that going their way, Perth still won by only four. The Breakers won the two-point battle by roughly twenty points, with PJC and King attacking a paint that lost Lual-Acuil inside the first eight minutes.
That paint condition hasn't changed: Lual-Acuil is out again, so Brandt, Wagstaff and Doolittle have to hold the rim. Windler is back in the depth chart, as he was last time. The one real change is Brandon Knight's debut. He gives Perth a second creator and an extra body for PJC, but this is his first game, coming off illness.
Expect long one-possession stretches. Last time there were twelve lead changes, and Perth only went ahead for good midway through the fourth. Perth's home wins this season have come by four, four and one. The Breakers have been strong late, winning the fourth quarter by thirteen in Adelaide. If the three-point gap moves even partly back toward the two teams' season rates, New Zealand's edge at the rim should decide it.
That's why I'm siding with the New Zealand Breakers to stay right with Perth or win it outright.
