These two matches pull in opposite directions. In Madrid the attacks are the story and they are poor. In Perth the defences are the story and they are leaky.
Getafe have scored just five league goals in ten games, with about 0.9 expected goals and under four shots on target a game. Sevilla are modest away from home at around 1.0 expected goals. Their recent meetings were mostly 1-0 and 0-0. Both teams have midfield absences, which favours a scrappy contest over a controlled one. Getafe's back line is thinned by a suspension and an injury, but they need Sevilla to build chances first, and the numbers say Sevilla rarely do on the road. That's why I'm siding with the low-scoring game.
Perth and Adelaide each give up roughly 1.6 to 1.8 expected goals a game, and six of the last ten matches for each went to three or more goals. Adelaide travel on a short turnaround and are missing their striker and a defender, who were also out in the last two games. Perth score on counters and set pieces, and Adelaide's possession and volume should stretch a thin Perth cover. I'm on the goals side in this one.
