Both of these games come down to who gets more chances to score, not who shoots better on the night. Memphis has won the rebound battle in six of its seven games, and Indiana has lost it in four of five since Haliburton went down. Oklahoma City beat Cleveland two days ago through extra shots off the glass and even turnovers, while Cleveland made threes at its normal rate. In both games, the side with the possession edge plays at home.
Memphis against Indiana first. Indiana has not won since Haliburton last played. With the rest of its core healthy, it lost by 8 at Milwaukee, 5 to Philadelphia, 20 at Miami and 8 to Brooklyn. Without Haliburton it has hit only about a third of its threes over those four games. It still gets to the line, but it loses the boards most nights. Memphis does the opposite: Edey and Stewart own the glass, and a long list of shooters (Wells, Coward, Boozer, G. Jackson, Grant) has been hitting from deep.
The key matchup is Edey against Huff, a slim stretch five who is likely to start at centre for Indiana. If Huff can pop and pull Edey away from the rim, Siakam gets driving lanes. That is how New Orleans drew fouls and won at FedExForum in overtime. But Indiana's guard group without Haliburton, McConnell and Sheppard has been leaking threes, and Jerome and Spencer have already shown in two straight games that Memphis can run its offence without Pippen. Zubac is the name to watch for Indiana. Even if he returns on a minutes limit, the rebound gap shrinks rather than disappears.
The likely shape is close for a quarter, then a Memphis run in the second or third quarter built on second chances and threes, with Indiana hanging around through free throws. For Indiana to win outright, it needs its best night since the injury and a Memphis night below its home low at the same time. That's why I'm siding with Memphis to win.
Oklahoma City against Cleveland is the second meeting in three days. Monday's road win came from 54 rebounds to 46, eight more shot attempts and level turnovers. Cleveland's 18 of 49 from three was right at its season rate, so it was not a cold night. Gilgeous-Alexander's 43 points will come down, and Mitchell's 17 on 2 of 8 inside should go back up. Those two corrections roughly cancel Monday's margin.
What changes is the setting and one player. Cleveland's absences are exactly Monday's, with Watson and Tyson still out. Oklahoma City gets Caruso back, the perimeter defender it lacked against Mitchell and Harden on Monday and in both blowout losses at Dallas and Houston. Both of those blowouts came on the road. At home without Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Wallace, Oklahoma City beat Phoenix by winning the boards and getting to the line 29 times. Cleveland is 1-2 away from home.
Expect it to stay tight into the fourth quarter, with the home team's rebounding and free-throw edge building slowly rather than in one burst. Cleveland has to shoot its way past a possession gap, and that needs an above-normal night from distance. That's why I'm siding with Oklahoma City to win at home.
