Two Championship midweek games, and both look like meetings of sides that give chances away. In each one the team with the ball should create plenty, and the team defending deep or counter-attacking should still get a couple of real opportunities. The structure points to goals at both ends rather than one side shutting the other out.
Lincoln against West Ham. West Ham will have most of the ball and score through wide combinations and runners, but they are far from tight on the road. Away from home they have faced Millwall, Bolton and Watford and allowed a lot of quality chances in each, around 2.7, 1.6 and 1.6 expected goals against, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their four away league games. Lincoln are a direct, low-possession side, and the script of sitting deep and breaking quickly is exactly the one that hurt West Ham on the road. Lincoln's home results (no wins, three goals in four games) look worse than the chances they have made at home, which were well over one expected goal in every game I measured.
On the team news, West Ham's only notable absence is a squad midfielder, and Kante is back after his one-match ban, so the idea of a depleted favourite does not hold. The open question is Lincoln's front line, with Hackett and Wheatley doubtful and Draper's start unknown. West Ham have also been slow starters, conceding first in three straight games, with most of their threat coming after half-time. That gives Lincoln a window early on, and West Ham a way back into it later. I expect something like 2-1 or 1-1, and that's why I'm siding with a goal for each team here.
Norwich against Southampton. Two leaky defences. Norwich have conceded in all of their last ten games, about two and a third a game, and Southampton have scored in all ten of theirs. Southampton hold the ball and are better than their league position suggests, since the table is held down by a points deduction. But away from home they have been a one-goal side, scoring exactly once and conceding at least once in all four league trips.
Norwich are missing their top scorer and their captain in midfield, and their last three attacks have been thin, so a blank is a real possibility. Against that, they have scored in every home league game this season, and the same absences were already in place at Swansea, where they still found a goal from a replacement. Southampton lose Bragg to suspension, but Downes or Ward-Prowse can cover that role, and Larin is the one uncertain name in attack.
The flow should be Southampton controlling the ball and Norwich countering through their wide players, with a first goal likely before half-time and the game opening late if it is level. Scores like 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2 fit that picture, so again I'm siding with a goal at each end.
