Neither of these games is as clear as the table suggests. At Bramall Lane, the home side's results have run ahead of its chances, and the visitors' away record rests on one very bad afternoon. In Nice, a pressing side with a new shape and a reserve keeper visits a team that scores from very little. Both matches come down to set pieces, deliveries and a few moments, not to volume.
Sheffield United have made 7.51 xG and allowed 9.75 in six home games, and both home wins came above their chances. Against set sides they have produced very little: three shots against Birmingham, six against Wolves. Wrexham's away record looks poor, but take out the 0-6 at West Ham and they out-chanced five hosts 5.88 to 3.76.
The duel that decides it is Moore and Smith against Tanganga and Kitching. Wrexham go direct, win throw-ins and corners, and need no open-play volume. That route has worked in the last two meetings under these same coaches, and all four goals against Preston came that way.
The long Wrexham absence list is not new. Windass, Cacace, Broadhead and Cleworth were missing from the last two XIs, which still made 1.89 and 1.60 xG. Sheaf is back to steady the second balls. For the hosts, Bamford went off hurt against Derby and Oné is out for weeks.
I expect a cagey, physical game with the ball mostly at home feet and no clear way through a three-man line, and a level score is the likeliest shape for much of it. That's why I'm siding with Wrexham.
In Nice, Rennes' press lands right on the home side's weakest action, Diouf and the back three playing out. Pantaloni has told his keeper not to take risks with his feet after errors in each of the last two games. Rennes have more shots, more chances and Dia to finish, and Nice have conceded in three of four home games.
Nice's route runs the other way. Samba is very unlikely to play, so Rennes turn to a reserve keeper, and Rennes' two league clean sheets both came at home with Samba. Their back three is two games old, and they have conceded in all three league away games. Nice have scored in four straight with corners, regains and Clauss's crosses for Wahi, who has scored in each of the last two.
Rennes should start fastest, and Nice's better half has been the second. If one side scores, the other has both the reason and the route to reply. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends here.
