Both games are shaped by a missing big piece. Orlando come to Madison Square Garden without Paolo Banchero, their main creator and their biggest free-throw source, and they were already a poor three-point side. In Philadelphia, Joel Embiid and backup big Jabari Walker are both out, which leaves the Sixers with almost no size against a Detroit team that wins on the glass. In each game, what the missing players took with them matters more than the names on the records.
New York have not won with shot-making so far. They grind half-court possessions, crash the glass through Hart and Anunoby, and get to the line. Both of their regular-season games against playoff-level opponents finished in the low 200s, and both losses were by four to six points, caused by turnovers and cold wing shooting rather than a collapse. Orlando scored their big number in the foul-heavy Atlanta game with Banchero drawing contact. Without him, they look like the side that made 8 of 39 threes and lost the boards by 18 against Minnesota.
The key matchup is Franz Wagner having to create almost alone against the length of Anunoby, Bridges and Hart. Da Silva moves into Banchero's starting spot, and he is a wing who has been missing from deep. The Orlando bench that gave almost nothing against Minnesota now has to play more minutes. On the other end, Brunson is shooting below his level and Suggs is Orlando's best defender at the point of attack, so the Knicks should keep their slow, patient pace. New York's offensive rebounds add possessions mostly on their own end, while Orlando's scoring is the side that drops. That's why I'm on the under at the Garden: a Knicks win in the hundred-and-eight to hundred range is the centre of this picture.
Philadelphia have won by pressure, not shooting. They have forced between 15 and 22 turnovers a game, but their weak spot is the defensive glass: Milwaukee out-rebounded them 62-40 even with Embiid playing 36 minutes. Now Embiid sits on the back-to-back and Walker is out with a sore knee, so the only true big left is Adem Bona, who has played around ten minutes a game. Detroit have already shown their version without Jalen Duren. At Miami he left early, Paul Reed grabbed 11 rebounds in 26 minutes, and Detroit still won the boards on the road.
The matchups pull in two directions. Reed and John Collins against Bona and Philadelphia's small units is the glass battle, and it leans clearly to Detroit. Maxey, Edgecombe and Brown hounding Cunningham and a loose-handling Detroit backcourt is Philadelphia's best route, since Detroit turned it over 17 and 19 times in their two games. Detroit won both of those games anyway, because the second chances made up for it. A fresh LeBron gives the Sixers a closer, but they are playing their third game in four nights while Detroit have had two days off.
I expect an even, scrappy game decided late, with Detroit's extra possessions and fresher legs mattering most in the fourth quarter. That's why I'm siding with Detroit, taking the points in a game that should stay within a few baskets either way.
