Two games where the record table hides how the styles actually meet. In Ulsan, Mobis' main weapon, interior scoring and free throws, runs straight into the one leak LG has shown in every game this season. In Tokyo, Alvark's big margins were built mostly against the bottom of the table, while Ibaraki's losing record came against the league's top sides, and they have never been blown out. Both games look closer than their reputations suggest.
Mobis vs LG. Mobis win inside the arc. Prim and Bazley make about 24 two-pointers a game at close to 55%, and the team draws around 19 free throws a game and makes 77% of them. LG are the opposite: they rarely turn it over and live on volume threes. But their interior defence has let opponents shoot 51-64% on twos in every box, including the games Marei played.
The key matchup is Marei against Prim's post game and Bazley's drives. Marei is back, but he is wearing goggles after his eye injury and picked up five fouls in 30 minutes last time out. When he sat in that game, LG had no other real centre. Tamayo is also reported as not fully fit, and Yoo Ki-sang's return adds a shooter for about ten minutes, not a new structure.
LG's ball security is real, but they force only about four steals a game, so it gains them maybe two or three possessions against Mobis' giveaways. Their threes are the swing column, and their wins needed hot nights above their normal. I expect Mobis to build through post touches and free throws in the first half, with the game turning in the minutes Marei sits. Late on, the free-throw gap matters in a close finish. That's why I'm siding with Mobis at home, taking the points in what should be a game decided by a possession or two.
Alvark vs Ibaraki. Alvark are 8-1, but their double-digit wins came against Saga, Osaka, Akita, Chiba and Kawasaki. Against Ryukyu and Gunma they went plus 11, minus 11 and plus 14. Ibaraki started 0-7, but against Hiroshima, the Dolphins, NeoPhoenix, Gunma and Brex they lost by between one and twelve points every time. They arrive having won their last two.
Alvark's clearest edge is at the line: their wings and bigs draw lots of fouls, and Ibaraki allow plenty of free throws. That is worth a few points, but the top sides that kept Ibaraki close had the same free-throw edge. Ibaraki's three-point defence has held opponents to about 30%, which caps the shooting volume behind Alvark's blowouts, and their own perimeter shooting keeps them in reach late. Olbrich has been out for Alvark all season, so that is already in their form.
The likely shape is a close first half, with Alvark pulling ahead after the break through free throws and third-quarter runs, much as Ibaraki's other losses to good teams played out. That's why I'm siding with Ibaraki to stay within reach rather than be run off the floor.
