[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Alavés vs Málaga Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 23 at 19:00 UTC
Alavés and Málaga open La Liga’s 10th round at Mendizorrotza in Vitoria. Alavés sit seventh but have gone five games without a win, while bottom-placed Málaga are still looking for their first victory of the season. Both need points, and Alavés’ attacks down the right and Málaga’s response after the break could decide the outcome.
1. Match overview and team form
Alavés have taken 11 points from nine league games, with three wins, two draws and four defeats. Málaga have four points from four draws and five losses, making them the league’s only team without a win. Alavés are higher in the table, but their recent form is no better. They collected 10 points in their first four games and just one in the next five. Málaga’s last five matches have brought two draws and three defeats. Alavés have earned nine points at home, but have lost their last two home games.
La Liga this season Table position and points: Alavés 7th, 11 points / Málaga 20th, 4 points Goals scored and conceded in nine games: Alavés 13-10 / Málaga 6-18 Home and away records: Alavés at home 3 wins, 2 defeats / Málaga away 1 draw, 3 defeats
Alavés’ winless run cannot be explained by poor finishing alone. They had the higher expected goals total in defeats to Racing Santander, Valencia and Celta Vigo. Against Racing, the opposing goalkeeper saved seven of their eight shots on target. Against Celta, Alavés had 20 shots but scored only once. They managed just two shots against Athletic Club, though. Their winless spell has included games where they created chances but failed to take them, as well as games where they barely created any.
Defending after the break is another concern. Against Valencia, substitute Luis Rioja ran between the centre-backs to score the winner. Against Celta, centre-back Javi Rodríguez pushed forward and was involved in two goals. Coach Quique Sanchez Flores also pointed to mistakes made when players tried to follow and support their teammates. Atlético Madrid’s winner came in a different context, with Alavés down to 10 men after Ángel Pérez was sent off. The recent goals they have conceded do not all stem from the same problem.
Since returning to the top flight, Málaga have scored once and conceded eight goals in four away games. Two of those matches were against Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid, so the away goals-against figure alone tells us little about this fixture. They drew 1-1 away to Celta and lost 1-0 at Getafe. Even in games where they kept the ball for long spells, though, Málaga have struggled to get into the penalty area. In the three recent games for which expected-goals figures were available, their expected goals against were higher than their expected goals in each one. Those figures cover only a recent stretch, not the whole season.
In their most recent game, against Real Sociedad, coach Juan Funes started Adrián Niño and Chupete together for the first time. Málaga scored twice but conceded five. Their response after falling behind 1-2 and then 2-3 was particularly concerning: they lost the ball in midfield and conceded again. Niño has scored three goals in the five games he has played since returning from an injury that ruled him out of the first four rounds. He has scored half of Málaga’s six league goals. The two-striker setup can create more attacking threat, but Málaga must keep the midfield and defence connected when chasing a game.
The sides will have different options out wide for this match. Ángel Pérez returns from suspension for Alavés. All three of his assists this season have come from the right. Málaga will be without Joaquín Muñoz and Juan Cruz through injury. Both are wide players who receive the ball and link up attacks, and they have supplied crosses when the team has been behind. Funes could use Larrubia and Haitam Abaida, or move a midfielder such as Pablo Martinez to the flank. Haitam has yet to start a game this season. Alavés are also missing Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodriguez, though Garcés has not played this season, so his absence has little effect on the current starting lineup.
Both teams played their last league match on October 18 local time and have had no midweek fixtures since. There is little to separate them in terms of rest. Alavés have the better recent head-to-head record, but their last meeting was a Segunda División match in May 2023. Neither of the current coaches was in charge then. Current tactics and player availability offer a better guide to how this game may unfold.
2. Matchup analysis
Alavés usually line up with three defenders and two forwards, then defend in a 5-3-2 with a compact block in front of the penalty area. Málaga try to build from the back and keep possession. If both stick to their usual approach, Málaga are likely to have more of the ball, while Alavés use three centre-backs and three midfielders to block central routes before attacking down the flanks. Málaga have struggled to get into the penalty area even in games when they dominated possession, so time on the ball alone does not point to an attacking edge for them.
The key matchup is Alavés’ Ángel Pérez against Málaga’s left side of defence. Alavés have used Antonio Blanco’s diagonal passes to the right to send Pérez towards the byline, where he can cut the ball back or cross. That route helped Lucas Boyé score the winner against Villarreal. With Pérez back, Alavés can target the right from the start, rather than waiting for Hugo Novoa’s introduction, which added more threat down that flank against Celta. If Novoa starts on the bench, Alavés will also have the option to bring on extra pace there later.
Jose Salinas and Adam Aznou are the candidates to start at left-back for Málaga. Salinas struggled to contain Ilias Akhomach’s dribbling against Villarreal, and an attack down that same side led to the equaliser. If Pablo Martinez plays ahead of him, Málaga would gain passing and forward runs, but he would also have to track Pérez. If Pablo Martinez drops deep to help defend, Málaga will have fewer players on the left going forward. Adding another defender could increase their numbers in the penalty area but leave fewer midfielders available to link play.
The contest in the air after crosses from the right also matters. Boyé and Toni Martínez attack the box for Alavés, while Pablo Ibáñez and the centre-backs also look to finish from crosses and set pieces. Apuestas Deportivas reports that Alavés have won 13.4 aerial duels per game this season, compared with 6.8 for Málaga. That figure covers duels across the pitch, so it does not mean Málaga lose every contest against crosses into their penalty area. Still, the numbers line up with Alavés’ main attacking route and one of Málaga’s weaker areas. Whether Málaga can limit Pérez’s crosses and deal with the first ball will directly affect how many goals Alavés score.
Málaga face a different challenge when they attack. Alavés have forced possession-minded opponents to shoot from outside the penalty area. Against Athletic Club, 15 of the opposition’s 23 shots came from outside the box. Málaga also struggled to get into the box against Getafe, despite winning a series of corners after the break. If Alavés keep their defensive block intact, Málaga may find it hard to get the ball into good positions for Niño and Chupete, even if they circulate possession well.
Málaga do have ways to threaten. Against Celta, Niño moved towards the near post and headed in a corner. Against Espanyol, he came in from deeper to meet a cross from the right and score the equaliser. Pablo Martinez’s delivery and Larrubia’s crosses from the right are also options here. If Carlos Dotor plays, he can make runs into the box from the second line. He scored with that kind of movement against Villarreal. Alavés have recently been caught out by players arriving from in front of the defensive line, so Dotor’s availability matters. EFE’s predicted lineup on October 23 did not include him, though.
If Funes keeps Niño and Chupete together up front, Málaga will have more targets in the box. At the same time, their two central midfielders would be up against Alavés’ three. As against Real Sociedad, sending more players forward to chase the game could leave space in front of the defence when Málaga lose the ball in midfield. Adding another midfielder could help them link passes, but would leave fewer forwards to attack crosses. Funes’ selection will shape how Málaga try to break down Alavés’ defensive block.
The second half could be decisive for both teams. The goals that settled Alavés’ defeats this season came after the break, while Málaga have picked up points in games where changes and tactical adjustments helped Niño score. If the game stays 0-0 for a long time, or Alavés take a one-goal lead and sit deeper, Málaga can look for an equaliser through corners and Niño’s movement in the box. If Málaga concede first and push more players forward, Alavés can attack the space behind their wide defenders. Málaga will also be without Muñoz and Juan Cruz, two of their options for wide attacks after the break.
3. Verdict and conclusion
Our predicted score is Alavés 2-0 Málaga. The likelier script is for Alavés to take the lead before the 60th minute through an attack down the right or a set piece, then score again once Málaga push forward in search of an equaliser. Ángel Pérez’s return gives Alavés the chance to target Málaga’s left from the opening whistle. With two wide attackers out, Málaga have fewer ways to deliver the ball into the box when chasing the game. Niño remains a threat in front of goal, but if Alavés use their three defenders to protect the box, Málaga’s possession may not turn into clear chances.
The market leans towards an Alavés win because Málaga are winless and have struggled away from home, and we agree with that outcome. The difference lies in the predicted margin and how the goals arrive. The market has favoured Alavés to win by fewer than two goals. We see Muñoz and Juan Cruz’s absences as reducing Málaga’s attacking options when trailing, while also making it harder for them to protect the flanks when they push forward. If Alavés’ attacks down the right produce the opener, we expect them to win by two goals without conceding.
This forecast depends heavily on when Alavés score first. If Málaga contain Ángel Pérez’s forward runs and keep the score at 0-0 late into the second half, Alavés will have less time to exploit the space behind their opponents’ wide players. In that scenario, Pablo Martinez’s corners and Niño’s movement in the box could earn Málaga a point.
