[2026-27 English Premier League] Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest preview and analysis Kick-off: October 23, 19:00 UTC
Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest meet at Portman Road in the eighth round of the Premier League at 19:00 UTC on October 23. Promoted Ipswich are 10th, while Nottingham Forest are 19th after three straight defeats, yet overseas markets favour the visitors. Ipswich’s late scoring threat will meet Forest’s away attacking strength.
1. Match overview and team form
Ipswich began their first season after promotion with Gary O’Neil in charge, following Kieran McKenna’s departure. They have won three of their seven league games, all by a one-goal margin. Late goals turned things around against Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Fulham. Against Fulham, substitutes were involved in an 88th-minute equaliser and a 90+1-minute set-piece winner in a 2-1 victory. It was a clear example of O’Neil’s second-half attacking changes producing goals.
Their defence remains a concern. Ipswich have conceded 15 goals in seven league matches and have conceded in all nine of their league and cup games this season. Against Manchester City, they failed to deal with a ball delivered from the flank into the area. Against Liverpool and Arsenal in the League Cup, they lost possession in their own half and midfield, then conceded twice in the first half on each occasion. Their expected goals against totalled 7.58 across matches against Manchester City, Fulham and Everton. That figure covers only the last three games for which expected goals against data is available. Ipswich scored twice away to Manchester City, so their attacking threat should not be discounted because of their defensive problems alone.
Nottingham Forest have lost three league games in a row under Oliver Glasner, but the defeats have come in different ways. At home to Coventry City, they had 24 shots but managed an expected goals figure of just 1.1. Half of those attempts were blocked, and they struggled to create good shooting positions. Away to Crystal Palace, by contrast, they created chances worth 2.97 expected goals but scored only once. Across the last three matches with expected goals and expected goals against data, Forest recorded 4.75 expected goals in total but scored just one goal. That is why their attacking problems cannot be explained by poor finishing alone.
The home-away split is also stark. Nottingham Forest have scored all five of their league goals this season away from home. On the road against Liverpool, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, they have used the home side’s forward movement to send Dan Ndoye and Liam Delap into space. At home, they have had plenty of possession against teams sitting back but have failed to score. Over their last 20 matches, they have scored 19 goals in nine away games and nine in 11 home games, though that sample includes last season’s Premier League and Europa League matches. For today’s matchup, their attacking displays away from home this season are the more direct evidence.
League position and points: Ipswich Town 10th, 9 points; Nottingham Forest 19th, 5 points League record: Ipswich Town 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses; Nottingham Forest 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses League goals for and against: Ipswich Town 11 and 15; Nottingham Forest 5 and 9 Key absentees today: Ipswich Town, Sasha Lukic; Nottingham Forest, Igor Jesus and Nicolò Savona
Sasha Lukic is out for Ipswich. He has been a midfielder who breaks up opposition attacks with fouls and takes right-footed set pieces. Florentino Luís is expected to partner Ezequiel Palacios in midfield, with Abdoul Fatawu and Leif Davis among the likely set-piece takers. Lukic’s absence could matter most when Forest win the ball and look to break forward immediately.
Forest cannot call on Igor Jesus, who scored a late winner against Aston Villa. Nicolò Savona is also out, leaving fewer alternatives to Daniel Muñoz at right wing-back. Glasner said Morgan Gibbs-White had trained all week and Nikola Milenković was ready to start. Gibbs-White could help link play behind Delap, but his return alone will not solve Forest’s scoring and second-half management problems.
Forest had the better of the recent meetings. They went unbeaten against Ipswich in the 2024-25 league and FA Cup campaigns, recording two wins and a draw, and won 4-2 in their last league visit to Portman Road. But both managers from those matches, Nuno Espírito Santo and Kieran McKenna, have since left. The way the current managers choose to use possession matters more today than those results.
Strong winds are another factor on the night of October 23. A yellow weather warning covering kick-off has been forecast for Suffolk, with gusts of up to 50 mph expected in Ipswich. The wind could affect the flight of Forest’s long passes and Ipswich’s crosses and set pieces. Before the wind direction and ends are known, there is little basis for saying either team will benefit. Both sides are next due to play away on October 31, so there is little need to manage their starters with the next fixture in mind.
2. Matchup analysis
O’Neil expects Ipswich to have a reasonable share of the ball rather than defend deep as they did against Manchester City. Ipswich used a back three in that match, but their usual shape has been 4-2-3-1. If they return to a back four, Davis and Guemissongui Ouattara are expected to play as full-backs. The starting formation is not confirmed, but O’Neil’s comments point to Ipswich attacking from a higher position than they did against City.
That approach could give Forest chances too. Glasner’s side defend in a 5-4-1 without the ball, then move it forward quickly after winning possession. If Delap can receive and hold a long pass, Gibbs-White and James McAtee can offer options ahead of Ipswich’s two midfielders. Issa Diop will need to deal with the first duel against Delap, while Luís and Palacios must cut out the next pass. How well the pair cover the defensive work Lukic usually handled could determine how many counterattacks Forest create.
Forest’s early away goals under Glasner support this reading of the game. They scored first in all three of their league away matches under him. Ndoye opened the scoring at Liverpool, Delap at Aston Villa and Ndoye at Crystal Palace. If Ipswich push forward in possession and lose the ball in their own half, Forest could find similar chances. Forest have also missed 17 of their 21 big chances, though. Their ability to create chances away from home and their ability to finish them today are separate questions.
Leif Davis’s forward runs down Ipswich’s left could shape the attack for both sides. He has two goals and two assists in nine competitive appearances this season, and his cross and header helped produce a goal against Crystal Palace. On the other side, Muñoz lost one-on-one duels with opposition forwards in the decisive-goal sequences against Coventry City and Arsenal. Davis could help Ipswich find openings down that flank if he advances alongside the left winger.
Those forward runs also leave Ipswich’s defence exposed. Crystal Palace’s first goal came when their wing-back received a pass in space out wide while Davis had moved inside. If Ipswich lose the ball after Davis has pushed on, Ndoye or Muñoz could attack the space behind him. Luís and Palacios’ positioning when Ipswich’s attack breaks down will matter to their defence on the flank as well.
Even if Forest score first, the game will not be over. In all three of their league away matches under Glasner, they scored first and then conceded an equaliser. They led twice at Liverpool before drawing 2-2, and were pegged back at Aston Villa before Jesus scored the winner in the 88th minute. Jesus is unavailable today. Substitute forwards Chris Wood and Arnaud Kalimuendo have also yet to score this season. Gibbs-White could help connect the attack if he starts, but Forest will have fewer attacking options to take the lead again after conceding an equaliser.
Ipswich have been adding numbers in attack at just that stage of games. Against Fulham, O’Neil made five substitutions between the 63rd and 81st minutes, and the substitutes were involved in both goals. Chuba Akpom and Zian Flemming have each scored twice despite limited minutes, while Jack Clarke has three assists. The winner against Fulham came from a Clarke free kick, headed in by Dara O’Shea. If Forest take a one-goal lead into the second half, O’Neil’s changes and Ipswich’s set pieces will test Forest’s ability to manage it.
If Ipswich score first, Forest may have to take more of the ball and attack. Against a side sitting deep in the Coventry City game, Forest had few shots on target and a low expected goals figure relative to their shot count. Ipswich, meanwhile, have yet to keep a clean sheet in any competition this season. That makes it difficult to conclude that the first goal alone will give either side control of the game. In strong winds, the accuracy of the long passes and crosses both teams rely on will matter too.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect Nottingham Forest to create the better early chances. O’Neil expects Ipswich to have the ball in higher areas, which suits the conditions in which Forest have scored away through Ndoye and Delap. Without Lukic, Ipswich’s midfield will need to stop the next pass after Delap receives the ball. If Gibbs-White plays, Forest will have another option to link their attacks.
But to turn an early advantage into an away win, Forest will need to protect a lead in the second half. They have scored first away from home and still conceded an equaliser every time. Ipswich have scored after the 60th minute with substitutes and set pieces, while Jesus’s absence leaves Forest with fewer attacking options to regain the lead after conceding. Ipswich have not shown they can keep opponents out this season, so Forest could still create further chances after an equaliser.
Overseas markets give Forest a clear edge, pointing to their chance creation and Ipswich’s defensive vulnerability. That makes a Forest opener plausible. Taking into account Ipswich’s second-half threat, Forest’s problems managing leads and the absence of Jesus, who scored after Forest were pegged back, we think a draw is more likely than an away win.
Our score prediction is Ipswich Town 2-2 Nottingham Forest. We expect Forest to take the lead on the counter before Ipswich respond with second-half substitutions and a set piece. If Ipswich repeatedly give the ball away at the back early and Forest go 2 goals ahead before the 60th minute, Ipswich may not have enough to come back, and this prediction would change.
