Both of these games are built on two strong channels that point in opposite directions. In Ulsan, Mobis' two-import interior game runs into an LG defence that keeps leaking twos, while LG's edge comes from ball security and three-point volume. In Sendai, the home side's three-heavy offense meets the one thing Yokohama defends reliably, the arc. Neither looks like a game that breaks open easily.
Mobis against LG first. Mobis rank second in the league in made twos, and they play Prim and Bazley together for long stretches. That leaves an LG forward guarding an import, and LG's own coach has named that as the matchup his team struggles with. The numbers back him up: LG have conceded between 23 and 32 made twos in five straight games, including 24 from 43 against KoGas with Marei back.
Marei is LG's answer at the rim, but he picked up five fouls in his return off the bench. If he gets into foul trouble early again, LG run out of size. Mobis also have the cleaner free-throw stroke, around 77 percent against LG's 66, and that matters late in a close game.
LG's case is real. They protect the ball better than Mobis against every common opponent and take a lot of threes. But LG don't force many turnovers themselves, so that possession edge is a couple of trips, not a flood. All of LG's numbers this season were also made on the road, and Mobis are at home. I expect a game decided by a few points, so I'm siding with Mobis to stay inside the margin at home.
Sendai against Yokohama next. Sendai have won four straight behind Culver's scoring, but those wins came by 15, 2, 4 and 9, and they barely get to the free-throw line. When their threes don't fall, as in their home loss to Akita, they have nothing to fall back on. Yokohama, meanwhile, have held opponents to roughly 30 percent from three over seven games.
Yokohama's weakness is fouling, but Sendai don't attack the rim for contact. Kotsar should also win the glass against Sendai's stretch bigs, since Kobe outrebounded Sendai by ten. Yokohama are long without McGusty and King, and that has been true all season. Eight of their nine games were decided by ten points or fewer, and the one blowout came against a different-level offense with two rotation players missing.
I expect Sendai's three-point percentage to set the margin, with Kotsar's second chances keeping Yokohama in it into the fourth quarter, where they have finished well. That's why I'm siding with Yokohama to keep this within the margin on the road.
