[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: Preview and analysis Kick-off: October 22, 16:45 UTC
GNK Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen meet at Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb on October 23 at 01:45 Korea time for Matchday 3 of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase. Dinamo have four points and are looking to add to their tally as they chase a place in the next round. NEC, on one point, travel needing to end an eight-match winless run and keep pace in the standings.
1. Match overview and team form
Croatian league and cup winners last season, GNK Dinamo Zagreb sit second with 19 points from nine league matches this season. In the Europa League, they drew 0-0 with Hapoel Be'er Sheva and beat Anderlecht 1-0, putting them 14th. NEC Nijmegen finished third in the Eredivisie last season, but are 12th this time around with 10 points from nine league matches. In Europe, they lost 5-0 to Juventus and drew 1-1 with Levski Sofia, leaving them 27th.
Comparison Europa League, 2 matches: GNK Dinamo Zagreb, 1 win and 1 draw, 1 goal scored and 0 conceded / NEC Nijmegen, 1 draw and 1 loss, 1 goal scored and 6 conceded Domestic league, 9 matches: GNK Dinamo Zagreb, 2nd, 19 points / NEC Nijmegen, 12th, 10 points Data Center, last 20 matches: GNK Dinamo Zagreb, 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses, 45 goals scored and 20 conceded / NEC Nijmegen, 3 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses, 24 goals scored and 35 conceded
Recent results clearly favour Dinamo. They beat Anderlecht and Slaven Belupo in succession after the international break, then won 5-1 away to Slaven Belupo despite making six changes to the starting line-up. Still, nine of their 14 goals in the last five matches came against Vukovar 1991 in the cup and lower-table Slaven Belupo in the league. They lost 2-1 to Hajduk Split, while their winner against Anderlecht came from a stoppage-time penalty. Anderlecht also hit the woodwork twice in a single attack in that match. Those details make it hard to take Dinamo's upturn as proof they can score freely against European opposition.
NEC have drawn their last four matches. They managed 24 shots and an expected goals figure of 2.99 against Fortuna Sittard but had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Against Levski Sofia, they put nine shots on target and finished 1-1. Coach Dick Schreuder's view that they created chances without turning them into wins fits their home performances. This match, though, is away from home. NEC have failed to score in their last three European away matches and drew a blank in four of their last nine away games, according to the Data Center. Whether they can create the same volume of chances at Maksimir is another matter.
Home advantage has its limits. Dinamo are unbeaten in 20 straight Croatian league home matches, but their four-match unbeaten run at home in European competition includes 2-2 draws with Thun and Viking. NEC's last three away matches in which they trailed at half-time all ended in losses by at least three goals. That makes Dinamo's first goal and NEC's response an important part of the matchup.
Both coaches adjusted their starting line-ups in their previous league matches with this Europa League game in mind. Mario Kovacevic made six changes after the Anderlecht match, while Schreuder rested captain Tjaronn Chery and Gabriel Brás against Fortuna Sittard. Both teams have had the same number of days to recover. The difference is in the options available during the match. Kovacevic said all of Dinamo's players registered for European competition are ready, while NEC's travelling squad has 19 players, including three goalkeepers. That leaves six outfield players on the bench once the starting ten outfield players are accounted for.
NEC will be without centre-backs Bram Nuytinck and Philippe Sandler, as well as Tadic. Tadic's absence means another player must take on the linking role behind the forwards, while the defensive absences directly affect the centre-back pairing tasked with dealing with Dion Beljo. Predicted line-ups differ over whether Perr Schuurs and Ahmetcan Kaplan will start. Both are building up their minutes again after injuries. It also matters whether Chery and Schuurs start together. Against Go Ahead Eagles, Schuurs headed in a corner delivered by Chery.
The teams have met officially just once: Dinamo won 3-2 at Maksimir in 2008. The coaches, squads and competition format have all changed since then, so that result offers little guidance for this match. Rain is not forecast at kick-off, and winds are expected to be light. How well each side can handle or sustain the press is likely to matter more than the conditions.
2. Matchup analysis
The key early battle is NEC's man-oriented press against Dinamo's build-up from the back. Schreuder has signalled that his team will press high, and Kovacevic has also said they expect man-marking across the pitch. If NEC track Josip Mišić in Dinamo's 4-1-4-1 and block the centre-backs' passing lanes, they could win the ball back close to goal. Chery's goal against Levski Sofia, after pouncing on a goalkeeper's misplaced pass, showed the danger NEC's press can create.
If Dinamo beat the press, they can create favourable one-on-one situations. When NEC's defenders step forward to follow their marks, the remaining three defenders have to deal with Beljo and the wide attackers individually. Juventus scored first by sending a long ball behind NEC's press. Dinamo can also draw opponents into midfield and play quickly into Beljo. He headed in a cross from Mateo Pérez Vinlöf against Hajduk Split. With Nuytinck and Sandler missing, NEC will need to be especially careful about who picks up Beljo when the press is bypassed.
Dinamo do not always play through a press. Against Hapoel Be'er Sheva, they ceded possession after the opening spell and finished with 0.30 expected goals and one shot on target. Beljo missed that match through illness, so the target for direct passes was different. He is available this time, but if NEC win the ball around Mišić early on, Dinamo may again have to spend long periods defending. Kovacevic has also said they will need to defend when the opposition are having the better spell.
Out wide, attacking and defensive duties go hand in hand. If Dinamo's Mateo Pérez Vinlöf and Niko Galešić push forward, they can look for Beljo with crosses. NEC wing-backs Kevin Kers and Clément Bischoff must stop those runs, but they can also attack the space behind Dinamo's advanced defenders when their team wins the ball. NEC threatened on the counter in the second half away to Ajax, using space left behind as the hosts attacked. The further Dinamo commit down the flanks, the more important their response will be when they lose possession.
Set pieces give NEC a route to overcoming their lack of away goals. Four of their five goals in the last four matches came from penalties, set pieces or opposition errors. Against Hajduk Split, a set-piece cross hit a Dinamo defender and went in as an own goal; later, the opponents collected a cleared cross and scored the winner. If Chery and Schuurs play together, NEC can target that weakness with a corner routine they have already shown. Predicted line-ups differ on whether both will start, though, and if either begins on the bench, NEC cannot use the combination from the outset.
The difference in substitution options could become more apparent after the break. Kovacevic brought on attacking players together in the 60th minute or later in both Europa League matches so far. Against Anderlecht, a pass into the box from substitute Daniel Rodriguez led to the winning penalty. NEC can maintain their pressing intensity too, but with only six outfield players on the bench for this away trip, their choices are limited. If the match stays 0-0 for a long time or NEC push forward to find an equaliser, Dinamo may find additional chances.
3. Final view and prediction
We expect GNK Dinamo Zagreb to win 2-1 or 1-0. NEC may disrupt Dinamo's build-up early with their press, but if Dinamo get the ball into Beljo, they have a good chance of creating scoring opportunities against NEC's centre-backs in one-on-one situations. If the game remains tight into the second half, Dinamo can bring on players such as Rodriguez to renew their attack. NEC could find a goal from a set piece involving Chery and Schuurs, or from an error at the back, so we expect the hosts to win by a single goal. If NEC fail to score, we expect Dinamo to find a late winner for a 1-0 victory.
The market also rates Dinamo as the likelier winner. It gives more weight to their strong home record and big wins in the domestic league, as well as NEC's heavy away defeats. Dinamo have not scored as freely against European opposition of a similar level as they have in the league, and they have conceded after taking the lead when dealing with crosses and second balls. NEC's set pieces can target those situations, so we agree on the likely winner but expect a narrower margin.
This prediction depends on NEC keeping the deficit to one goal or less at half-time. If Dinamo score early and go two goals ahead before the break, NEC may push forward in search of a way back, leaving space for the home side to exploit again.
