Two very different matches here, but both lean on the same idea: the home side has the volume and the visitors have holes to exploit.
In Munich, Bayern win through territory and pressure: about two thirds of the ball, 22 shots a game and 26 goals in their last five at home, with two 6-1 wins in the last two there. Dortmund are compact under Kovac and concede about one a game, but they come in without three midfielders and without Neuer in goal behind them. Less ball-winning in the middle means less protection against Bayern's pressure, and Dortmund's own route to goals is a counter or a set piece.
The game should flow with Bayern holding the ball and Dortmund sitting in a mid block. The first goal matters less than the second, which tends to come once the pressing wears Dortmund down. That's why I'm siding with Bayern to win by a clear margin.
At the Etihad, City and Brighton are two possession sides who both create about two expected goals a game. City have scored 22 and conceded 12 in their last six home games, and their recent meetings have been full of goals: 2-2 in midweek, plus a run of 2-2, 1-1 and 2-1 results. Brighton are short up front with Mitoma and Ferguson out, but they still produce chances and the shape of the game is open, with space behind City's high line.
A single early goal is more likely to open this match than to shut it. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
