Two cup ties where the team news shapes the match more than the names do. City rest their defensive spine but keep their attacking unit, against a Brighton side that creates plenty and has stopped finishing. Chelsea arrive at Anfield without the player who makes their chances, without their striker, and with a back-up keeper. Liverpool's set pieces are aimed straight at that keeper.
Manchester City against Brighton first. Both sides want the ball, so the real contest is City's press against Brighton's build-up. City are reported to be resting Donnarumma, Dias, Gvardiol, Anderson and Haaland, with Rulli confirmed in goal. That leaves a young centre-back pair behind a press that has lost its anchor. Brighton average around 20 shots a game and kept 64 percent of the ball even at Anfield. City's two goals conceded at Villa came from errors with their first-choice spine on the pitch.
City's own route to goal survives the rotation. Foden has three goals against AEK, and Doku gets to run at Brighton's right side, where Costinha is likely covering for Kadioglu, who went off early at Liverpool. City have scored in each of their last ten. Brighton's blanks in their last two came from 43 shots, which is poor finishing, not a lack of chances. With extra time waiting at a level score, both sides keep attacking late. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends in this one.
Now Liverpool against Chelsea. Palmer is suspended, Joao Pedro is out for weeks, and Penders is in goal. On his first league start Penders punched a corner into his own net, and even with Palmer on the pitch against Spurs, Chelsea managed very little. Liverpool win corners in numbers, scored two headers in their last home European game, and Ngumoha set up two goals against Villarreal by beating his man. Van Dijk, Mac Allister, Isak and the wide attackers are in both predicted line-ups, so the units that make those routes work should be there whatever Iraola rotates.
Chelsea's way into the game is a mistake in a rotated Liverpool back line or a run in behind, the way Villarreal went ahead at Anfield. That pattern tends to end in a draw rather than a Chelsea win, because without Palmer they struggle to break down a set defence. That's why I'm siding with Liverpool.
