The headline numbers in this fixture come from somewhere else. Liverpool's big totals are European nights with a rotated back line, and Brighton's goal glut is finishing at roughly double the chances behind it. In the league, under Iraola, Liverpool play a controlled, pressing game that keeps opponents under one expected goal. This looks like a match of territory and patience, not a shootout.
Look at the league rows rather than the scorelines. Liverpool drew 0-0 with Fulham, won 1-0 at Bournemouth and 2-1 at Brentford, and in each of those they gave up less than one expected goal while creating somewhere between 1.3 and 1.6. The 6-3 and 4-3 games came in Europe, with Tsimikas in and late collapses after the substitutions. That is a different team from the one that should line up at Anfield.
Brighton's league run looks frightening on paper, but the 3-0 over Arsenal, the 2-0 at Sunderland and the 5-0 against Palace produced about ten goals from under five expected goals. Away against good sides they let the opponent have the ball, sitting on 38 to 40 percent possession and breaking through Gomez, Ayari and Kostoulas with Gross on set pieces. It is a good counter-attacking side, but it does not chase games.
The absences push in the same direction. Szoboszlai and Frimpong both went off injured at Brentford and missed the midweek game, so Liverpool lose pressing volume in midfield and overlaps on the right. That takes chances away from Liverpool's attack rather than opening their defence. Hurzeler has also wanted to stop Wirtz collectively, which keeps the middle crowded.
I expect Liverpool on the ball, Brighton in a mid-block, and a tight first half. Both squads are on short cycles and both coaches are managing legs, and the wind forecast does not help clean passing. The most natural shapes are 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 or 2-1.
That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring game at Anfield than the headline goals suggest.
